Writings and observations

How much a race in OR 1?

So is the race in Oregon’s House 1, between incumbent Democrat David Wu and Republican Rob Cornilles, heating up?

Chris Cillizza’s Fix at Washington Post certainly advances the possibility: “Oregon Democratic Rep. David Wu is among the more unlikely GOP targets but a new internal poll for his opponent’s campaign suggests he might be in a real face this fall. Wu takes 46 percent to 40 percent for sports business consultant Rob Cornilles in the Moore Information survey, which was obtained by the Fix …”

Obtained, presumably, from the Republican sources Cornilles’ campaign is closely tied to. Cornilles, unlike some other Republican primary contenders around the country (see Vaughn Ward in Idaho, for example) was very much the preferred choice of the national Republican establishment, and he has a solid campaign staff (including some Oregon-experienced staff) with significant Beltway links. For a Cornilles-run internal poll (which it was) to take substantial mention in the Post or National Journal isn’t especially unusual. (It does indicate a campaign staff alert to pushing all the buttons it can.)

That said, the results in themselves should be treated, as intentionally released campaign-generated numbers always ought to be, with deep caution. The sense here is that Cornilles is further back than he seems to be; Wu has for a decade now been regularly described an advance of elections as more vulnerable than he turns out to be, even in years of bad headlines, which this one isn’t. The appearance of the numbers, though, does say this: The Cornilles people are working, and if a large enough anti-incumbency opening does appear, they’re positioning themselves to take advantage of it.

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