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Posts published in March 2010

F-35, yes or no

Idaho public officials have been jumping at the opportunity to pull in F-35 military aircraft, which would be based at Gowen Field at Boise. One indicator has been the Idaho Legislature, which passed (House unanimously, the Senate on voice vote) House Joint Memorial 10, urging the planes be based there.

That would lead you suggest that the proposal - which does have its downsides, notably some very loud noise across a good deal of Boise - is overwhelmingly popular. But that may not be right.

Take a look at the forum on the subject at the Idaho Statesman web site - the comments are running decidedly in opposition. A number of commenters suggested that Mountain Home Air Force Base, about 35 miles away, might be a more suitable location.

One commenter: "I retired from the Air Force 6 years ago. One of the reasons I came here is because there are no jets! If they fly F-35’s out of Gowen Field it will be heard everywhere in the valley, not just around the airport flight paths. If they do a ground engine test at 50% you will hear it in Idaho City. In England, the Air Force was sued because F-111s were rattling the old churches apart in towns miles away. In New Mexico the F-15’s were causing Cows not to milk as much – that’s what the farmers said anyway. My parents live near Eglin AFB, FL where the city of Valpariso just sued the Air Force not to put F-35’s there. The F-35’s are the loudest Air Planes I’ve ever heard. Think straight exhaust without any muffler or baffler and multiply it by a thousand."

OR gov: An opening round

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At the debate: John Kitzhaber (left), Bill Bradbury/Stapilus

The two main Demcratic candidates for Oregon governor, former Governor John Kitzhaber and former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, have debated before and fairly recently. But this evening at the Multnomah County Courthouse was the first since filing for the office closed - since, you might say, the campaign period more or less formally begins.

Both, at a crowd somewhere upward of 100 people, were readty to roll this evening.

Both put some emphasis, opening their discussion, on Democratc bona fides. Kitzhaber painted himself, for one thing, as the bulwark against the Republican tide of the mid-90s, saying of his many vetoes, for example, that "without those vetoes Oregon wold be a far different state today". (Although he would speak later, passionately, about working with Republicans.) Bradbury spoke about a range of fronts, from his Bank of Oregon proposal to his call for much higher education funding levels. Both made a point of addressing the state's economic problems.

Bradbury was quick to be up front about his muscular schelosis, point out his entry into the room on his segway. But he said the disease was diagnosed back in 1980 and didn't stop him from serving as Senate president or secretary of state.

The most striking single policy idea (not new to this debate, but highlighted at it) was Bradbury's for a Bank of Oregon, as a means of keeping Oregon money in state to a greater degree. Kitzhaber said he thought it was an idea worth investigating further, among others, but noted that North Dakota (the only state now with a state bank) and Oregon may have a number of structural differences.

Broadly, they agreed on quite a bit - both, in loose terms, are liberal Democrats. (Their disagreements had mainly to do with means, not ends - Kitzhber sometimes questioning the practicality of some of Bradbury's ideas.) But Bradbury's framing sounded more like traditional Democratic talk (he, more than the crisply wonkish former governor, had that earnest-Democrat sound), while Kitzhaber's approach and conceptual framework was a lot different on a range of issues. One brainy Idahoan was asked, years ago, whether in the area of utility regulation he considered himself a consumer advocate; he said not really, because he wasn't a fan of consumption - his way of looking at issues was simply different. Analogous with Kitzhaber, who seemed to scale down the current talk on health insurance (considering it one one slice of the issue), for example, in favor of a large-concept look at health in terms of promoting better health as the essential solution to the problem.

Kitzhaber was asked about the choice between bipartisanship and sticking with principles; he described it as a false choice, that "we have to recreate some kind of a political center."

Bradbury's supporters seemed more in evidence than Kitzhaber's. They were sign-waving outside, and they were more evident in the commission meeting room too (they live streamed the debate). But the crowd seemed laid back; it was a group of Democrats, do supportive of both candidates, but didn't seem strongly weighted toward either.

The Idaho roster

Monday candidate filings for office in Idaho yielded a few nuggets worth note here:

bullet There are now two Democrats filed to take on Republican Senator Mike Crapo, so he won't be unopposed again in November as he was six years ago. But which will it be? Tom Sullivan of Tetonia, an unknown factor in state politics? Or maybe a guy who did get some headlines a few months back: William Bryk of Brooklyn, New York?

bullet There's a Supreme Court contest: Justice Roger Burdick is being opposed by 2nd District Judge John Bradbury. Loads of hard feelings lie in back of this one. In 2008, Bradbury ran against and came very close to ousting Justice Joel Horton. Last year, Bradbury was the subject of a complaint that he didn't live enough in his formal county of residence, Idaho County - a complaint the Supreme Court snarkishly upheld (in which we view as one of its weaker recent decisions). And there's more back of all this. Could be lots of snark unloaded in this one between here and the May primary. [Note: Corrected to refer to Bradbury, rather than Burdick, as subject of a complaint.]

bullet Only a few more Democrats filing for the legislature. Maybe notable: In Idaho Falls, Jerry Shiveley, who in 2006 became the first Democrat elected to the legislature from that area in decades, won a central-city seat, which he lost in 2008, and now is filing for again.

Baird: Odds are, on board with bill

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Brian Baird

Outgoing Washington Democratic Representative Brian Baird was among the Democratic "no" votes on the House comprehensive health care bill some months back. Now he's one of the critical four voters House Democrats leaders hope to flip on the upcoming House health care vote - needed because of prospective losses elsewhere.

Baird's public statement on the subject is a little cagey, although he does say, "The legislation that is currently being discussed in the House of Representatives is far different from the bill I voted against in November 2009." He seems to be leaving room for voting in favor.

Meanwhile, the Democratic representative from the district immediately north - Adam Smith - says that "It's possible I vote for the Senate bill and against reconciliation."

Even so, the pieces appear as though they're coming together. Those two seem to be, at this point, the only two northwest members of Congress whose votes (whether up or down) look seriously in doubt.

“Nothing regular about this regular session”

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Special session announcement/TVW

Washington Governor Chris Gregoire got off a pretty good line - "There was nothing regular about this regular session" - although it may be twisted considerably for comic effect before long . . . in announcing the special legislative session coming up this week.

The revenue shortfall remains $2.8 million. They have a week now to fill it (starting Monday at noon).

Or presumably another round after that if need be. But the guess here is that the prospective embarrassment will limit them to one.

Klamath water users like decision

An Oregon Supreme Court decision in the case Klamath Water District et al v. United States, a case referred to it (partially) from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, is being roundly praised by water user advocates.

The Oregon court said the referrals "ask whether, as a matter of state law, the farmers and irrigation districts that use water from a federal reclamation project have an equitable property interest in a water right to which the United States holds legal title and whether an equitable property interest in a water right is subject to adjudication in the ongoing Klamath Basin water rights adjudication."

In background, the court said "The Federal Bureau of Reclamation manages the Klamath Project, which stores and supplies water to farmers, irrigation districts, and federal wildlife refuges in the Klamath River basin. The plaintiffs in the underlying federal litigation are farmers and irrigation districts that use water from the Klamath Project for irrigation and other agricultural purposes. As a result of drought conditions in 2001, the Bureau terminated the delivery of water to plaintiffs that year in order to make water available for three species of endangered fish. Claiming a property right in the water, plaintiffs brought an action in the United States Court of Federal Claims, alleging that the United States had taken their property in violation of the Fifth Amendment and, alternatively, that the United States had breached its contractual obligation to deliver water to them. The United States asked the federal claims court to abstain from deciding plaintiffs' takings claim until an ongoing state water rights adjudication determined what, if any, property rights plaintiffs had in the water from the Klamath Project."

In response, the court concluded: (more…)

The challenge

It's gotten a good deal of attention in Idaho, some in Washington and a little in Oregon. But from any of those angles, Idaho Governor C.L. "Butch" Otter's "Love Letter to Our Neighbors" merits a little thought.

The core of it is business solicitation, specifically going after businesses in Oregon and Washington which are seeing their states raise taxes, while Idaho is not: "We now are reaching out to hundreds of Oregon businesses, and will do the same with those in Washington if the legislature there follows Oregon’s lead. We aren’t offering many bells and whistles, but what we can offer is a business-friendly State government, a highly qualified and motivated work force, and communities where people understand that while government cannot be the solution to their problems it can and must be a champion for their own solutions."

On Monday, Otter wrote that "Last month, for example, Oregon voters approved their legislature’s decision to raise taxes on the wealthy and on many businesses by $727 million. The immediate result was that my phone started ringing – and so did phones over at our Department of Commerce. It seems that word has spread about our Project 60 initiative, and that we are open for business, including theirs! The businesses that have called are emotional about this subject, and they have every right to be. Rising costs – especially during a recession – could put some employers out of business, or at least prompt layoffs. More than 2,000 Oregonians joined a Facebook group to protest the tax increase and commiserate about the repercussions. No less an Oregon business icon than Nike’s Phil Knight calls it 'Oregon’s Assisted Suicide Law II'.”

On Tuesday, Washington Governor Chris Gregoire fired back. She said that "I'm not an expert on Idaho," but pointed out "It looks like they have a corporate tax of 7.6 percent, a sales tax of 6 percent, an income tax ranging from 1.6 to 7.8 percent," she said. Washington doesn't have an income tax (though it has a comparable business and occupation tax), and its sales tax isn't a lot higher. She mentioned (as she often does) the Forbes business rankings of states: "We're now the second best state in the country and they went from seventh to 11th. They're going down in the rankings. Regulatory environment we're ranked 5th, they're ranked 35th. You get my point?"

(Otter's letter refers to studies ranking Idaho lower in tax rates than the others. Note to all: If you want to go state tax-survey shopping, you'll find you can get whatever ratings you want if you look hard enough.)

Oregon's officials by and large haven't expressed terrific concern over this, though House Republican leader Bruce Hanna of Roseburg (who opposed the tax measures) did say in an Oregonian opinion piece today that "As a business owner, I recently received a letter from Idaho Gov. Butch Otter inviting me to bring my company and my jobs to his state. Although I have no intention of leaving Oregon, I'm deeply concerned when other states and cities are actively courting our businesses."

A whole lot of posturing going on. But is any of this likely to make much difference in terms of business opens, closes or moves?

Not likely. (more…)

If he doesn’t

UPDATE He has: Otter filed for re-election this (Friday) morning. What follows may still be food for thought, though.

This post may be rendered useless speculation tomorrow or next week, and odds are it will be. Can't help posting it, though, just because it seems to shine some light on a political dog that didn't bark in the night-time. [see edit at end of post]

That would be C.L. "Butch" Otter, the governor of Idaho who is widely expected to run for a second term. He has nowhere said he won't, has indicated he will, and has six filing days left to do it. But when asked about his campaign, he has sounded reluctant to the point of diffidence. Yeah, odds are he will.

But it's quite a contrast with the last cycle for the office, when Otter, just re-elected in 2004 to the U.S. House, made clear he wanted to run for governor. Hardly had his re-election to federal office been certified than he was on the run, the happy warrior doing everything he could to lock down at least the Republican nomination for governor. Then-Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch, who also wanted the job, was simply out-maneuvered, and in November 2005, after strongly suggested he was in the race, dropped out. It was the logical move: Otter had moved very aggressively to sew it up.

Compare that to this cycle: What looks very like an oh-I'll-get-around-to-it sort of approach, almost an unwillingness. The contrast couldn't be much greater.

So what if Otter - and the decision is singularly his - decided: To hell with this garbage everyone insists on putting me through? What if he decided not to file?

What a fun time we'd have. Well, some of us. (more…)

And candidates trickle in

Monday was a deluge, the rest of the week a trickle, in Idaho candidate filings. That's not unusual; the pace doesn't ordinarily pick up again until near the end, which is a week from tomorrow.

No posts on this the last couple of days because there wasn't a lot to say - the fitful filings have been mostly as expected.

Following up on a Kevin Reichert post yesterday, though: The bulk of the legislature does seem to be running for another go-round.

Unless my count was somehow side-tracked, I'm now counting 82 current legislators having filed for another run at the legislature. That includes Democrat Anne Pasley-Stuart in District 19, currently a House member running for the Senate seat, but not Senator Nicole LeFavour, who plans to swap offices with Pasley-Stuart, but hasn't yet filed. o you can bump that up to 83.

Since there are just 105 legislators, and since six more filing days (out of a total of 10) remain, that gives good odds the next legislature will, as Reichert suggested, closely resemble this one.

There is also this:

Total number of legislative seats (out of 105 total) for which Democratic candidates (including incumbents) have filed so far: 20. Seats for which Republicans (including incumbents) have filed: 79.