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Posts published in “Day: March 9, 2010”

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Candidate filing in Oregon is done for this cycle, barring unusual circumstances, and not counting appearances from the minor parties. Now we can take a quick first run at what's emerging among some of the 306 candidates . . .

U.S. SENATE Ten candidates for the U.S. Senate this time, including one overwhelming favorite - incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden - and a cast of lesser-knowns. Two - Loren Hooker and perennial Pavel Goberman - are primary contestants. Among the seven Republicans, most of whom list no previous governmental experience, the most likely nominee will be former law school dean Jim Huffman. Although, in what's apt to be a low-key primary, you'd be hesitant to post a flat bet on any result.

U.S. HOUSE 1 All five House seats wind up contested, and more candidates filed in the 1st than any other. Democratic incumbent David Wu seems, again, strongly positioned (the Oregonian actually put a positive-spin headline about him on the front page this week) - he's been underestimated in most of the last few cycles. David Robinson of Beaverton will opposed him in the primary. Four Republicans filed here - Stephan Andrew Brodhead, Rob Cornilles, John Kuzmanich and Douglas Keller; Cornilles seems to have developed the best organization and campaign effort so far, but all are newcomers to campaigning and the primary outcome is far from certain.

U.S. HOUSE 2 Republican incumbent Greg Walden seems unassailable in this strongly Republican district, but the Democrats did come up with a candidate, Ashland writer Joyce Segers. Those two will proceed to the general.

U.S. HOUSE 3 Earl Blumenauer, the Democratic incumbent in this strongly Democratic district, has another low-key primary challenger (John Sweeney) and - second time around - Republican Delia Lopez, who lives a couple of hours south of the Portland-based district in the small city of Oakland. (Yes, she can legally file for the seat, but expectations of victory ought, of course, to be modest.)

U.S. HOUSE 4 Only a few months ago, Republicans were looking at this seat with some realistic hopes, back when veteran Democratic incumbent Peter DeFazio was considering a run for governor instead, and Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken looked like a strong nominee. Neither circumstance came to fruition, and now DeFazio is back as an extremely-hard-to-beat incumbent, and Republicans have two little-known challengers (Jaynee Germond of Dillard and Art Robinson of Cave Junction) headed to the primary. Doesn't look like a lot of excitement here.

U.S. HOUSE 5 This could be the one really hot congressional race in Oregon this year. Democrat Kurt Schrader is in his first term in a district still pretty closely balanced between the parties (though Democrats have been picking up). Republicans have their strongest congressional challenger anywhere in the state (and probably their strongest challenger in Oregon period above the legislative level) in state Representative Scott Bruun, a relatively moderate and strongly articulate and knowledgeable legislator from West Linn. Bruun has a Republican primary with Fred Thompson of Salem, which may help him organize earlier around the district. Unless Thompson delivers a shocker in May, the Schrader-Bruun contest will be one of the best to watch in Oregon this year.

GOVERNOR No fewer than 13 filers for governor this year, and so few with any realistic shot of getting past May. Among the Democrats, there's former Governor John Kitzhaber, who has the best odds, and of it isn't him, it'll be former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Two other Democrats - Steve Shields (thought he'd pulled out?) and Roger Obrist - are in the primary too. And then there are nine Republicans; of them, five are little-known, one (Bill Sizemore) has some name ID but not in politically helpful ways, and then there are the three invited to speak at the Dorchester conference: Allen Alley, Chris Dudley and John Lim. The race upcoming seems likely to revolve heavily around either those three, or maybe evolve into a de facto two-way between Alley and Dudley.

STATE TREASURER The unexpected race (noted in previous posts) will feature three Democrats: new incumbent (and former Multnomah County chair) Ted Wheeler, state Senator Rick Metsger, and former Treasurer Jim Hill. We'll start with an incumbent's presumption, but there's plenty of room for surprises here. Republican state Senator Chris Telfer of Bend will face one in November.

LEGISLATIVE Not many stunners here - we'll cut short this too-long post before getting into the details - but will note generally that Republicans have improved their candidate filings for legislative seats, a roster than sank to mediocre levels in 2008. In fact, if an initial check is right, Republicans have filed candidates for all but one of the 60 House seats, which means more ballot lines filled than the Democrats have done - a real achievement. And they've done not badly with filling slots on the Senate side too.

A treasury of candidates

wheeler

Ted Wheeler

And with the speed of superglue - hastened by the 5 p.m. candidate filing deadline - a whole section of Oregon politics for the months ahead is snapping into place.

The reason, as noted here earlier, is the combination of a candidate filing deadline today, plus the death on Sunday of state Treasurer Ben Westlund. He was probably one of the most-liked people in Salem, but the law didn't allow for time to pause and grieve, only time to decide and file.

The first key action today was Governor Ted Kulongoski's appointment to treasurer for the period from here until after a new treasurer is elected. That went (in what felt like a small but not large surprise) to Multnomah County Chair Ted Wheeler. Wheeler hadn't been much involved in politics on the state level up to now, but he has gotten good headlines at Multnomah since he took office there in January 2007, leading a commission which had been a trouble spot for some years, and smoothing out and broadening its activities. He was already running for re-election to the county office this year, and had drawn only slight opposition. The appointment is likely to get positive media attention.

It is professionally defensible. From Wheeler's own statement on the appointment: "I imagine in some corners of the state, people will ask: 'Who is Ted Wheeler?' The short answer is that I currently serve as the chief executive officer of the largest county in Oregon, that I was a senior manager of an investment firm in my private sector career and that I have graduate degrees in government and business. In short, I’ve got a good resume for this job. Frankly, I’ve thought for some time that I might run for Treasurer at some point in the future. I never expected it to be this soon."

He is also running for it, and as an incumbent is likely to be well-positioned. His ties to the Portland business community are likely to generate a large campaign treasury, and he probably will be able to look to labor for substantial support too.

Not of that is stopping other candidates from entering, two of them state senators: Democrat Rick Metsger of Welches and Republican Chris Telfer of Bend. And there's former state Treasurer Jim Hill, who can point to his past experience there. Al three can be considered serious candidates, but our guess is that Wheeler will enter as front-runner.

Wheeler's departure at Mulnomah leaves open his seat at the chair, and another commissioner, Jeff Cogen, and a former state senator, Margaret Carter, are in for that.

More on candidate filings once the deadline is past, later today.