Our basic sense in the Idaho 1st - Republican primary side - has been that the solid frontrunner is and has been for a while Vaughn Ward, the first-time candidate who has some strong connections via the McCain campaign forces, work around the Dirk Kempthorne camp, and elsewhere. He started out campaigning, organizing and fundraising hard, with money moving ever deeper into six figures.
His opponent, state Representative Raul Labrador, R-Eagle, has longstanding connections and alliances in Idaho Republican politics, but he started months later, only after another Ward opponent (and another state representative, Ken Roberts) dropped out. Surface reading continues to suggest an advantage to Ward.
But for those watching this race, this post on the Idaho Conservative Blogger ought not to go unseen. In running a poll, the same sort that months ago gave Ward a big advantage over Roberts, different results:
Labrador wins with 641 votes and 59%, Ward 430 Votes and 39%, the rest either vote other or undecided.
Again this is in no way a scientific poll. I don’t track the voters and do not know the demographics, I again can’t even guarantee the voters are all from the 1st congressional district, (sounds a little like holding an open primary but, that’s a topic for another day) Why would Ward win with 90% of the vote in September against Roberts and loose to Labrador today with 39% of the vote?
ICB thinks there are many factors in play. If memory serves me right the total votes in the September poll were under 200. In this latest poll there was 1,080. It only makes sense, ICB was a new web page and readership has grown. Could be that the Labrador camp got the word out about the poll to more of their supporters than the Ward camp?
And if they did, what might that say about organization?
Maybe not a big deal. But worth tossing into the kit bag for consideration.