Press "Enter" to skip to content

Posts published in “Day: December 29, 2009”

WA: A decade gone by

One in a series of posts about changes, or lack thereof, over the last decade around Northwest politics.

Washington looked a good deal different a decade ago - it looked like a closely-split state, a place whether either party could about as easily catch a break. It 2000, for example, it had a true cliffhanger of a U.S. Senate race. In the upcoming Senate race for 2010, Republicans have had a tough time getting a top-drawer candidate at all.

Here is where Washington was a decade ago in partisan office-holding:

Office Democrats Republicans
U.S. Senate Murray Gorton
U.S. House 5 4
Governor Locke 0
Statewide ofcs 7 1
St Senate 27 22
St House 49 49

And here is where Washington is today:

Office Democrats Republicans
U.S. Senate Murray, Cantwell 0
U.S. House 6 3
Governor Gregoire 0
Statewide ofcs 6 2
St Senate 31 18
St House 61 37

It shows up most strongly in the legislative numbers, where the parties went from something very close to parity a decade ago (exact parity in the House) to serious Democratic dominance.

The parallel to Oregon is overall fairly close. As in Oregon, not a lot changed in the central urban areas (Democratic) or the rural regions (Republican). The shift was in the suburbs, and it was profound. Eastern King County was still clearly Republican a decade ago; now by most measures it is clearly Democratic (the persistence of Republican Representative Dave Reichert notwithstanding). The patterns are similar, and the moves and development notably in parallel. (That applies to a considerable extent in the Spokane area, on a smaller scale, as well as Seattle.)

What will the next decade bring?

There's no particular reason to think the political shifts are over, though some reason to think the Democrats, with their big legislative majorities, have come somewhere close to maxing out. A good part of what makes the difference could have to do with what face the Republican Party puts on itself in the next few years.

Something to watch: The congressional race in the 3rd district, for the seat held for more than a decade by Democrat Brian Baird. It has been held decisively by Baird, but the overall voting patterns are a close split. Either party could realistically win the seat; and what's more neither party's nomination is locked. What chances do Republicans have for a comeback? (After all, with the right approach, Attorney General Rob McKenna is a fair bet for governor in 2012.) Watch this 3rd district race; it could provide a number of clues for what will come next.

Air screening, again

The attempt at taking down Northwest Flight 253 as it approached landing at Detroit - an attempt in progress before it was stopped - gives cause for some reflection on airline security. We've addressed this before, but some of the same wrong lessons emerge once again. So, once again.

Today's editorial in the Oregonian, "Screen the passenger, confirm the administrator," had some fair enough points (such as confirming the Transportation Security Administration nominee, held up presently in the Senate). And its criticism that intelligence (in this particular case at least) has failed to properly flow through the system is of course right.

The touching faith in screening technology is another matter: "The bomb ingredients that Abdulmutallab sought to detonate were hidden under his clothing, sewn into his underwear. If he had been sent through one of the advanced, see-to-the-skin screening machines, a screener would have seen them. As Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., has urged, those machines should be in place at any airport where passengers board planes bound for an American airport. Schiphole Airport in Amsterdam has some of the machines, but Abdulmutallab evidently wasn't required to pass through any of them. Some resist the use of the machines on the grounds that they are invasive, in that they can make passengers appear to be unclothed. But, says DeFazio, a member of both the Homeland Security Committee and the Aviation subcommittee, this effect can be diluted with software that dulls the appearance of the human body, while retaining the ability to detect contraband." (more…)