Archive for October, 2009

Oct 18 2009

Tight polling in the straw

Published by under Oregon

It may be that former Governor John Kitzhaber winds up running away with the 2010 governor’s race, primary and general, but stray indicators have been floating by suggesting the contrary – maybe that Kitzhaber very much still has to make his case.

One of the most interesting emerges this weekend from the annual Democratic summit at Sunriver, where a straw poll was conducted among the Democratic activists, politicians and supporters: Who’s you’re choice for governor?

Kitzhaber came in first, with 39.7%, but former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (who was in the race earlier) came in a close second at 36.4%. (The vote was 83-76.) Bradbury’s people were cheering the results, understandably.

Jesse Cornett, who was a poll organizer, noted at Blue Oregon that “supporters were out in full force and with bright blue shirts, hard to miss. While Bill Bradbury’s supporters were less ubiquitous, Bradbury himself took the entire weekend to be in Sunriver, likely helping his vote count.”

Side note: Representative Peter DeFazio, who has mentioned interest in the race, took 2.8%, best interpreted not of popularity but as an indicator of how likely DeFazio is to enter.

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 16 2009

Hutchinson’s hold

Published by under Washington

hutchinson

Susan Hutchinson

Dial back a couple of months to the August primary election for King County executive, and the results carried a clear portent – noted here – for the way things were likely to go in the November general.

The first place winner was former local news anchor Susan Hutchinson, a familiar face but new in local politics (never having held a public office), and a little more subtly the candidate from the right – the conservative; she got 33.1% of the vote. Second place, at 27%, was Dow Constantine, a liberal/moderate Democrat and a veteran on the county council. The next three vote-getters, whose percentages total to 35.2%, were all (speaking roughly) near-clones of Constantine politically: liberal/moderate Democrats with substantial elective experience in the county. The logical conclusion, assumed here, was that in rough terms Constantine’s support would merge with theirs, yielding enough for a win in the head-to-head with Hutchinson; none of the other minor candidates were close reflections of Hutchinson. That’s the way these kind of races ordinarily, structurally, work.

That conclusion, though, was built on an assumption: That in relatively liberal King County, in this non-partisan race, voters would draw the distinction in viewpoint and types of support between Constantine and Hutchinson. Two months on, with polling results showing Hutchinson in a lead, its unclear they have. Around the northwest in nonpartisan races, for such reasons, a number of jurisdictions elect Republicans in Democratic jurisdictions and Democrats in Republicans ones. King County just might do it this fall.

The campaigns are one reason for this. Constantine has only lately begun making the clear distinctions between himself and Hutchinson. And the telegenic Hutchinson has been doing a good job of fuzzing over the differences, sounding during this runoff campaign more like a moderate Democrat than anything else. And that may be working.

One real indicator of that is the endorsement today by the one general daily newspaper left in King County, the Seattle Times, for Hutchinson. It concludes: “But this election is about change. King County government must change the way it operates. The days of big-ticket projects and budgets are finished. The time is perfect for a political outsider to shake things up.”

Veteran readers of Times endorsements will find missing the paper’s usual reliance on experience and depth of knowledge as key bases for endorsement; good reason, since this case those assets aren’t there. And the history she does have should have had enough red flags to warn them off – if she wins, they may have a lot of ‘splaining to do in the next few years. (Take another look at that August post, and project the personality in the job of King County executive. You can see the train wreck coming.)

Comment from Horse’s Ass ran this way: “I actually thought the Seattle Times wouldn’t endorse Susan Hutchison because whatever the ideological affinity, even they couldn’t bring themselves to endorse a candidate who is so spectacularly unprepared and unqualified to serve in such an important office. I was wrong. I often speak of the Times ed board as a single entity, but I know this decision wasn’t unanimous, so if those ed board members who opposed Hutchison’s endorsement retain at least a shred of self-respect, they will make public who voted for whom, or whether the decision ultimately came mandated from union-busting publisher Frank Blethen himself. But institutionally, they should be ashamed of themselves.”

It may be another indicator, though, of the direction this race is going. It’s all about definition, and so far Hutchinson has done a fine job of keeping it fuzzy. Constantine has only a little time left to sharpen the focus.

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 15 2009

Where Idaho is

Published by under Idaho

A concise summary of Idaho’s present governmental financial woes, on Betsy Russell’s blog:

“One in five Idaho school districts has declared a financial emergency. State prisons are managing 500 more offenders than a year ago, with $28 million less in funding. Part-time state employees already hit with furloughs and other cutbacks will face sharp increases in their health insurance premiums. And Idaho’s Medicaid program could see a shortfall so extreme it’d have to eliminate 23 percent of the health benefits it provides to the state’s poor and disabled.”

Tax increases are of course off the table.

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 14 2009

“a massive giveaway to the rich”

Published by under Washington

That may sound simply ideological, but Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat has one of the best rundowns yet of the impact of Initiative 1033, the Tim Eyman special that’s been sold as restraint on government but does oh so much else.

Westneat delivers lots of specifics. They come down to this: “He could have targeted his tax relief, to help those who most need it. But he didn’t. This is the rotten core of his initiative. Forget all the caterwauling about spending cuts. At its heart this is a massive giveaway to the rich that does little to nothing for the poor.”

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 14 2009

Why Mormons should be wary of Glenn Beck

Published by under Northwest

The TV talker Glenn Beck has spots of real popularity in the Northwest. The attention he has gotten is massively outsized compared to his actual audience (on Fox, about two million, or about two-thirds of one percent of the American population – not even a major sliver). But it has been enough to move book sales and generate substantial public appearances, like the highly-publicized recent events in Seattle and Mount Vernon, and in July at Idaho Falls. To judge from appearances and general public comments, he has a particular base of support in eastern Idaho.

That may have demographic reasons. Beck is a Mormon, since 1999 a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, and that part of the country is heavily Mormon. The situation is a lot more complex than simply pointing to the co-religionist factor; to suggest that Beckism is the same as, as matches cleanly with, all of mainstream Mormon belief and culture, isn’t right. But if Beck’s visibility continues to grow, exactly that may happen.

The first article (I’ve seen) addressing this squarely is a piece in the Boston Phoenix, “Latterday Taint,” pointing out how Beck’s approach grows out of a line of thought within that church, but just one one. The article is well worth reading. The LDS Church isn’t entirely monolithic, and there are (relatively) liberal, mainstream, conservative and farther out elements. Beck’s rants grow out of some of the more extreme and paranoid activism.

A lot of Mormons have cause to be concerned that Beck’s fame has a backwash – that, in the minds of many, it comes to define them as well.

Share on Facebook

One response so far

Oct 13 2009

Buying commerce

Published by under Idaho

The long-term move of consumers from trading in small towns toward the mega-commercial centers in urban areas long has been one of the most serious problems small towns face (in the Northwest and elsewhere).

Here’s one approach for encouraging buying local, from an article on the city of Emmett (about 20 miles from Boise) in the Idaho Statesman:

“Last summer, a local non profit group called the Shadow Butte Development Corp. used an unusual approach to induce shoppers to buy locally. For every $100 they spent in local stores, the corporation gave them a $20 gift certificate. The result: $75,000 worth of gift certificates in July alone. ‘People found local mechanics and laundromats and other businesses they hadn’t even known about,’ said Wisti Rosenthal of the Gem County Chamber of Commerce. ‘For that $75,000, $2 million was spent in local businesses.'”

Share on Facebook

One response so far

Oct 12 2009

Reichert on health

Published by under Washington

reichert

Dave Reichert

The only Northwest Republican left representing an area west of the Cascades, Dave Reichert of the district located roughly east and southeast of Seattle but west of the mountains, has been through the political wringer.

He was elected in 2004, in a fairly tight race, then re-elected more closely in the Democratic year of 2006. Through this decade, his one-Republican district has been trending firmly Democratic in legislative and other races. And then, in 2008, the opposition to Reichert looked as if it had jumped the shark. His Democratic opponent, Darcy Burner, in her second race against him, did not quite as well as she had the election previous, in an election year even better nationally for Democrats. 2010 seems unlikely to be a comparable sweep year for Democrats. And the historical norm is that once a member of the U.S. House has passed the first re-elect, or maybe two, they generally settle in to easy returns.

And maybe that happens with Reichert. But our attention was snagged today by a Tacoma News Tribune article on Reichert (and Representative Doc Hastings of central Washington, a different situation since his is a very strongly Republican district) and his response to the health care debate. In Congress, Republicans have been hanging in very solidly on health issues, absolutely opposed to public options and other key elements of Democratic proposals. Operating in a politically marginal district, Reichert has been hanging in with his caucus.

The story notes, for example, “Reichert said, ‘it’s exaggerated to say it will put a federal bureaucrat in every doctor’s office, but the government will have a role.’ Both are also absolutely convinced the Democratic proposals to rein in Medicare spending by more than $500 billion over 10 years will result in cuts in care for the elderly, an allegation Democrat’s dismiss as an outright lie.”

Not only many superhot issues where the partisan divide has been so deep have found Reichert so firmly planted with his caucus; in some other cases, he seemed to try to have at least toe in both camps. But not so in this one.

When he draws an opponent next year, as he will, what role will this play? And will there be cost exacted?

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 11 2009

No records, no poll?

Published by under Oregon

Sid Leiken

Sid Leiken

You remember the case of Sid Leiken, the Springfield mayor who said he planned to run for the 4th U.S. House seat presumably against incumbent Democrat Peter DeFazio. In the month since candidate filing has opened Leiken hasn’t, maybe because of the August 21 tearful press conference announcement of an “error in judgment.” That concerned a $2,000 payment his campaign made to his own consulting firm, a payment that ordinarily wouldn’t be legal; Leiken said it was actually just a reimbursement to an outside contractor who conducted a poll. The outside contractor was his mother.

Which sounded a little odd, but also seemed to end the story, partly since Leiken’s campaign seems to have ground to a halt since. But state investigators from the Secretary of State’s office have kept poking at it. And this tidbit from the blog by David Steves, of the Eugene Register-Guard, posted a few days ago, seems to call out for more attention. It refers to a response letter from Leiken’s mother to the state officials:

Most recently, investigators have requested evidence that there really was a poll. That’s where the letter put out today comes in. In it, Glenda Leiken explains that, beyond a memo summarizing the poll’s results and methodology, which she submitted this summer, “no other documentation exists.” She doesn’t have any notes or computer spreadsheets used to track the results. She doesn’t have phone records, either, Leiken says.

“I used a disposable/single use phone to retain my privacy, as my cell phone is my only personal phone line,” she wrote. “The cell phone account was closed over 5 months ago and the phone company does not retain phone records for closed accounts, therefore phone records are not available.”

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 10 2009

Rally the base, or expand support?

Published by under Washington

protect marriGE

On R-71

Say you’re pushing a socially conservative concept is a state where the population is, as a majority, socially liberal or moderate at most. How do you do it? You might try a pivot to a non-morals-based argument, something relating to finance, legal complications or some other area.

What you don’t do, as the group Protect Marriage Washington has done, is something like this: A video that comes out of Sunday School and never leaves there, guaranteed to turn off all those people unlikely to support your view in the first place. (There’s no embed code for the video, hence the link to the home site.) The video’s view being that marriage itself is being violated by Senate Bill 5688, the measure that famously gave same-sex couples most of the rights of married couples but not the formality of marriage.

The guess here has been that Referendum 71, which seeks to repeal that legislature-passed law, won’t collect the votes it needs for repeal. Videos like this one do nothing to alter that sense.

Share on Facebook

One response so far

Oct 10 2009

Green votes, green behavior

Published by under Oregon

If you’re a plitician, best to assume you’re never off-camera – and that goes well beyond the range of traditionally scandalous stuff, down to what kind of car you drive.

Oregon Representative David Wu, who has a generally green voting record, also drives an SUV, as a Republican video which has made its way to Politico demonstrates.

His staff argued that Wu and his family do a number of other green things (recycling and so forth). And Wu, who does have a challenge but to all appearances so far, not a strong one, doesn’t seem in particular risk.

Pictures are, nonetheless, powerful things.

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 10 2009

New: 50 Meds for a Sick Health System

Published by under books

50 Meds
ORDER IT HERE or on Amazon.com

More about this book by Randy Stapilus

One or two won’t do. Most books (articles, speeches) about fixing America’s health care mess address two or three very real problems and corresponding solutions. But they don’t cover the waterfront, and the problem areas are too many to be cured by only a single silver bullet or two. This book for the first time compiles an extensive list of changes, some of them simple and some complex, that could cut costs and re-wire our system so it works better for all Americans. 50 ideas in a short and easy read – just 168 pages packed with solutions that can work. Available now from Ridenbaugh Press, $13.95

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 09 2009

Facebooking-off on health

Published by under Oregon

John Kitzhaber, the former Democratic Oregon governor who’s seeking a third term, tried something a little different this afternoon: A Facebook discussion on health care. People would post and comment, and Kitzhaber would weigh in with comments and some answers to questions. It may be a useful direction for his and other campaigns to come.

The results in this case? So-so. The participants around the spectrum (and they were decidedly not all from the left) generally gave him praise for the effort, and the half-hour session did yield quite a few viewpoints. Kitzhaber’s own comments were intermittent and brief (some of that owing to the format), and often suggestive of bullet points.

Scanning through the comments overall, so many cry out for more explication. Bullet-points seem to be the mode of political and policy thought these days; facts are ammunition to fire at the other side. Some of the participants didn’t seem to have an interest in putting the pieces together, though a minority did. And some of it wandered off into the mists of political philosophy, where such matters as solving problems based on facts-on-the-ground often get left behind.

Consider this exchange (in which Kitzhaber doesn’t appear): Continue Reading »

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 09 2009

Registration update

Published by under Uncategorized

At just over a year to the next general election – close to the midway point – seemed a useful point to review the party voter registrations in Oregon.

A note: Ind refers to the Independent Party; non-af is nonaffiliated. None that the drops in the interim (which are across the board) are generally explained because of standard records purging.

Month Dem Rep Ind non-af
Aug 909,414 679,934 47,563 423,711
May 907,700 679,624 44,752 419,486
Feb 930,649 692,610 45,358 429,858
Nov 08 931,318 694,589 43,030 429,758

.

Very stable.

Share on Facebook

3 responses so far

Oct 08 2009

Cubist health

Published by under Oregon

Not a bad little metaphor . . .

Somewhat complex, with each move having an effect on every other, but ultimately solvable. (Nice imagery for Merkley, too.)

A side note: The idea of a state opt-out for health care public option, if pursued, could be the shrewdest and most devastating political move of the year.

Share on Facebook

Comments Off

Oct 07 2009

Feelin’ like carrying

Published by under Idaho

Those of us not much into guns – that majority of us for whom guns aren’t, maybe apart from a hunting expedition or such, a part of ordinary daily life – have one kind of mindset when it comes to firearms. Even in these western states where guns certainly aren’t rare.

But there’s also the “open carry” culture. A perceptive Boise Weekly piece on a group of “open carry” (guns) advocates, by Scott Weaver, points out the view this way:

“The question is this: How do you reintroduce firearms into a culture that, as Ludlow and Carter have admitted, has rejected them as a part of everyday life? How do you push people toward the open-carry advocate’s ideal society, one in which everyone who is permitted to do so openly carries a gun. It’s often the first question you’re asked when you inquire as to why they’re carrying guns: Why aren’t you?”

Possible answers might include the potential for deadly accidents, the improbability of needing a gun (speaking personally, your scribe never has felt the need for one in more than half a century of American living and travel across 49 states) and the possibility of getting into a conflict with someone else also carrying; and that this century is the 21st, not the 19th. But that’s just one way of thinking.

Presumably the majority way, though, Idaho’s reputation notwithstanding. The Weekly story is spun around an Idaho Open Carry group’s plans to hold a dinner (at which carrying but not shooting was expected) at the Meridian Fuddruckers, which which evidently became uneasy at the idea, then at an Idaho Pizza Company, which asked them to leave their weapons outside, before finally getting a dinner with carry at a Shari’s.

An Idaho Pizza Company employee remarked, “This is supposed to be a family atmosphere. We got no problem with them coming in. We just don’t want them carrying guns. I mean, we don’t live in the Wild West, man.”

Well, evidently he doesn’t . . .

But be it noted that the Idaho diners are far from alone in their enthusiasm. Check out the website OpenCarry.org for more on the national perspective and relevant state laws.

Share on Facebook

One response so far

« Prev - Next »

 


A truly down-home ad for Oregon Senator Merkley.

 

Back in Print! Frank Church was one of the leading figures in Idaho history, and one of the most important U.S. senators of the last century. From wilderness to Vietnam to investigating the CIA, Church led on a host of difficult issues. This, the one serious biography of Church originally published in 1994, is back in print by Ridenbaugh Press.
Fighting the Odds: The Life of Senator Frank Church. LeRoy Ashby and Rod Gramer; Ridenbaugh Press, Carlton, Oregon. 800 pages. Softcover. $24.95.
See the FIGHTING THE ODDS page.


 
JOURNEY WEST

by Stephen Hartgen
The personal story of the well-known editor, publisher and state legislator's travel west from Maine to Idaho. A well-written account for anyone interested in Idaho, journalism or politics.
JOURNEY WEST: A memoir of journalism and politics, by Stephen Hartgen; Ridenbaugh Press, Carlton, Oregon. $15.95, here or at Amazon.com (softcover)

 

 

NEW EDITIONS is the story of the Northwest's 226 general-circulation newspapers and where your newspaper is headed.
New Editions: The Northwest's Newspapers as They Were, Are and Will Be. Steve Bagwell and Randy Stapilus; Ridenbaugh Press, Carlton, Oregon. 324 pages. Softcover. (e-book ahead). $16.95.
See the NEW EDITIONS page.

How many copies?

 
THE OREGON POLITICAL
FIELD GUIDE 2014

The Field Guide is the reference for the year on Oregon politics - the people, the districts, the votes, the issues. Compiled by a long-time Northwest political writer and a Salem Statesman-Journal political reporter.
OREGON POLITICAL FIELD GUIDE 2014, by Randy Stapilus and Hannah Hoffman; Ridenbaugh Press, Carlton, Oregon. $15.95, available right here or through Amazon.com (softcover)

 
 
THE IDAHO POLITICAL
FIELD GUIDE 2014

by Randy Stapilus and Marty Trillhaase is the reference for the year on Idaho Politics - the people, the districts, the votes, the issues. Written by two of Idaho's most veteran politcal observers.
IDAHO POLITICAL FIELD GUIDE 2014, by Randy Stapilus and Marty Trillhaase; Ridenbaugh Press, Carlton, Oregon. $15.95, available right here or through Amazon.com (softcover)

 
 
without compromise
WITHOUT COMPROMISE is the story of the Idaho State Police, from barely-functioning motor vehicles and hardly-there roads to computer and biotechnology. Kelly Kast has spent years researching the history and interviewing scores of current and former state police, and has emerged with a detailed and engrossing story of Idaho.
WITHOUT COMPROMISE page.

 

Diamondfield
How many copies?
The Old West saw few murder trials more spectacular or misunderstood than of "Diamondfield" Jack Davis. After years of brushes with the noose, Davis was pardoned - though many continued to believe him guilty. Max Black has spent years researching the Diamondfield saga and found startling new evidence never before uncovered - including the weapon and one of the bullets involved in the crime, and important documents - and now sets out the definitive story. Here too is Black's story - how he found key elements, presumed lost forever, of a fabulous Old West story.
See the DIAMONDFIELD page for more.
 

Medimont Reflections Chris Carlson's Medimont Reflections is a followup on his biography of former Idaho Governor Cecil Andrus. This one expands the view, bringing in Carlson's take on Idaho politics, the Northwest energy planning council, environmental issues and much more. The Idaho Statesman: "a pull-back-the-curtain account of his 40 years as a player in public life in Idaho." Available here: $15.95 plus shipping.
See the Medimont Reflections page  
 
Idaho 100 NOW IN KINDLE
 
Idaho 100, about the 100 most influential people ever in Idaho, by Randy Stapilus and Martin Peterson is now available. This is the book about to become the talk of the state - who really made Idaho the way it is? NOW AN E-BOOK AVAILABLE THROUGH KINDLE for just $2.99. Or, only $15.95 plus shipping.
 

Idaho 100 by Randy Stapilus and Martin Peterson. Order the Kindle at Amazon.com. For the print edition, order here or at Amazon.


 

    Top-Story-graphic-300x200_topstory8
    Monday mornings on KLIX-AM

    watergates

    ORDER IT HERE or on Amazon.com

    More about this book by Randy Stapilus

    Water rights and water wars: They’re not just a western movie any more. The Water Gates reviews water supplies, uses and rights to use water in all 50 states.242 pages, available from Ridenbaugh Press, $15.95

    intermediary

    ORDER IT HERE or on Amazon.com

    More about this book by Lin Tull Cannell

    At a time when Americans were only exploring what are now western states, William Craig tried to broker peace between native Nez Perces and newcomers from the East. 15 years in the making, this is one of the most dramatic stories of early Northwest history. 242 pages, available from Ridenbaugh Press, $15.95

    Upstream

    ORDER HERE or Amazon.com

    The Snake River Basin Adjudication is one of the largest water adjudications the United States has ever seen, and it may be the most successful. Here's how it happened, from the pages of the SRBA Digest, for 16 years the independent source.

    Paradox Politics

    ORDER HERE or Amazon.com

    After 21 years, a 2nd edition. If you're interested in Idaho politics and never read the original, now's the time. If you've read the original, here's view from now.


    Governing Idaho:
    Politics, People and Power

    by James Weatherby
    and Randy Stapilus
    Caxton Press
    order here

    Outlaw Tales
    of Idaho

    by Randy Stapilus
    Globe-Pequot Press
    order here

    It Happened in Idaho
    by Randy Stapilus
    Globe-Pequot Press
    order here

    Camping Idaho
    by Randy Stapilus
    Globe-Pequot Press
    order here