Ridenbaugh Press/Northwest

There’s pretty consistent polling out now showing approval/disapproval numbers for Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin getting steadily worse by the day; polling for the Daily Kos site (which has been both most detailed and transparent on this) has shown a drop of +17 to -5 (that is, comparing favorable against unfavorable numbers) over the last eight days. The decline is stunning.

Palin appears to remain strong, however, in some places – Alaska, for one (at least to a point), and Idaho, where the John McCain lead over Barack Obama seems to remain at 62%-33%, much stronger (to judge from earlier polling results) than before Palin was added to the ticket, and an unusual result nationally.

The Research 2000 polling for Kos also shows that, while some earlier results in the 1st congressional district had put Democrat Walt Minnick within as few as five points of Republican Bill Sali, the more recent numbers show a broader spread – 46% to 35%. Kos suggests of Palin, “After all, she’s a virtual ideological twin for former ID-01 Representative Helen Chenoweth, and has the potential to reinvigorate Sali’s lagging supporters.” There’s even some physical resemblance (though their speaking styles were different, Chenoweth actually sounding a good deal more genteel).

(If accurate, that result still leaves some growth room for Minnick – it’s not dispositive – but suggests Sali has the better odds.)

The numbers look much rougher for Democrat Larry LaRocco in the Senate race, since the polling puts Republican Jim Risch, the lieutenant governor, at 56%, LaRocco at 33%, and independent Rex Rammell at 3% (suggesting he’s not much catching on – which would seem to be prerequisite to LaRocco’s hopes). Kos again: “LaRocco appears to have topped out his support, while the undecideds from the last poll have moved over en masse to the Republican Risch. Last poll, McCain led 53-37 in this solidly Red state, this time, it’s 62-33. Palin has definitely fired up the wingnut base in Idaho, to the detriment of down-ticket Democrats.”

Our guess is that the margins soften a little in Idaho between here and November. But we don’t see at this point what would change them dramatically.