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Shooting distance

The just-out Greg Smith Associates poll on the Idaho Senate race shows a 23.3% undecided in the contest between Republican Jim Risch and Democrat Larry LaRocco. In that lies a quandary: How undecided and how up for grabs are they?

The topline numbers give Risch 40.8% support, LaRocco 29.5% and independent Rex Rammell 3.2%. If those numbers hold, Risch would need just a sizable chunk of the undecideds to win, while LaRocco would need to sweep them. Although the situation isn’t quite that simple, either.

The winner may not need an outright majority, for example. Rammell, who has been a virtual unknown until recently among many Idahoans, is getting better known with his TV ads and debate appearance – we’d not be shocked to see his numbers rise substantially. Not polled in detail are other candidates on the ballot, including “Pro-Life” and a Libertarian; all three of these non-majors are apt to draw from the Republican base, meaning from Risch. If a sizable chunk of these candidates pick up from “undecided,” LaRocco’s chances may be enhanced.

Another interesting bit from the crosstabs, comments by pollster Smith: “Not surprisingly, years having lived in Idaho has a fairly strong correlation with candidate preference. For instance, those having lived in Idaho for about 15 years of less voice roughly equal levels of support between Risch and LaRocco (with perhaps a slight Risch preference), whereas those who have lived in Idaho from about 16 years to as many as 40 years more heavily favor Risch. This years of residence finding, combined with that of respondent age, suggests to us that there are two particular groups of support that show heavy support for Risch: Natives/long-time residents who are either rather young (18-29) or ‘Baby Boomers’ (50-64).”

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