Ridenbaugh Press/Northwest

Next week’s Washington state primary election has, in truth, drawn only limited interest for its politics – much more for its new procedure, which effectively puts party lines to the back of the bus and lets voters send their two favorite candidates, of whatever persuasion, on to November.

The wide-open feel to the thing, though, is expected to draw a solid electorate – Secretary of State Sam Reed has estimated as high as 46%. And if the primary-level contests are not, for the most part, cliffhangers, a number of them will be of interest.

The statewide executive offices probably will not be among them, at least all that much. Probably a lot will be made out of the percentages in the governor’s race – the vote received by Democratic incumbent Chris Gregoire against Republican challenger Dino Rossi. But there’s no meaningful doubt those two will advance to November. Most of the other state executive races also should resolve into conventional Republican/Democratic contests for November.

Some races are more interesting, though, and could evolve in directions different than would have been possible, or at least likely, under a system other than top two. Here are some of them.

One race for the U.S. House definitely will be different this time. In District 2 (northwest), incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen is up against two other Democrats on the ballot. So he will be opposing one of those two in November (presuming, as is overwhelmingly likely, he is the top primary finisher).

Two other House races are worth watching at primary level, for longer shot possibilities. In District 3 (southwest), Democratic incumbent Brian Baird faces anti-war Democrat Cheryl Crist and two Republicans. Might the Republican vote be split enough to allow a Baird-Crist contest in November? We’d guess not, but it’s worth a look. And in District 7 (central Seattle), long-time Democratic incumbent Jim McDermott will get the most votes, but second place could go several ways. It may go to the one Republican on the ballot (Steve Berean). But so Democratic is this district that one of the other three Democrats on the ballot might slip through to second place.

Most seats in the legislature probably will resolve simply to either D-R contests or a single candidate will be unopposed (a significant number are).

But three Republican departures have created some interesting contests. In the House District 4 position 2, where Lynn Schindler is opting out, you have a long-time Republican district (basically north of Spokane, with suburbs) with a currently all-Republican delegation. But just how Republican is this district? The filers include five candidates – three Republicans (Matt Shea, Ray Deonier and Diana Wilhite) and two Democrats (Tim Hattenburg and Anthony Honorof). What are the odds one or even two Democrats could slip through given the candidate number disparity? This could be a useful case study.

In District 7, also very Republican, a different situation occasioned by Bob Sump‘s departure. There’s no partisan issue here: Only five Republicans filed, no Democrats or anyone elsse. So two Republicans will face each other in November.

In nearby District 8, Shirley Hankin‘s retirement also led to entry by five candidates, but one of those is a Democrat. So that one probably will get to the November ballot, while the Republican vote splits four ways. On the other hand, the November winner almost certainly will be the Republican.

In District 11 (the Renton-Tukwila area), Democratic Senator Margarita Prentice faces two fellow Democrats, Juan Martinez and Scott McKay – no Republicans or other.

District 17 House seat 1 probably turns into an R-D contest, in this politically marginal district (the senator is a Republican, the other House member a Democrat); but it bears watching, since the present three-way is less than predictable. The Republican incumbent is Jim Dunn, who has has had awful headlines and handslaps from his own caucus leadership. He is being strongly challenged by fellow Republican Joseph James, who might or might not surpass him in votes. And there’s the Democrat, Tim Probst, who has been running hard too. The numbers will bear parsing here next week.

In District 40 (the great expanse running through the San Juans over to Anacortes, Mount Vernon and north to Bellingham), Democratic Senator Harriet Spanel has opted out, creating a fun situation, not much of a true party contest. There are four Democratic candidates, plus one that prefers the “True Democratic Party”. And one from the Salmon Yoga Party. And, oh, yes, a Republican. Probably this turns into an R-D battle, but you look at the rundowns and the voting patterns, and it’s hard to be sure . . .