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Posts published in “Day: August 11, 2008”

OR: Back up?

The Oregon Senate race is showing some signs of real interest: Thi could be highly unpredictable a long way down the road.

Following the May primary up until the last month or so, polling showed Republican Senator Gordon Smith leading Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. Then, two polls showed Merkley ahead, one barely, the other substantially.

Now, two polls show Smith retaking the lead. Today's from Rasmussen Reports shows Smith ahead 4% to 39% for Merkley. Is it the large ad campaign Smith has unleashed (despite a raft of criticism of several of those ads)?

Or are these shifts really significant shifts at all? Our sense is that the safest conclusion to draw from any of them, and from other evidence, is simply that the race is fairly close and nowhere near resolved yet. This could turn into an October nailbiter.