Question arose in comments a couple of days ago which suggests something more than a quick reply: “I’d just be interested in any history you have on the chances of a challenger beating a weak incumbent in a rematch (as a Grant-Sali race would have been) versus a new candidate taking out the incumbent.”

That had to do with a post on the 1st district U.S. House race, where the Democratic field shrunk from two candidates to one. The departed was Larry Grant, who ran against Republican Bill Sali two years ago and was hoping for a rematch. Still standing, and now the presumptive Democratic nominee, is Walt Minnick, who has not run for this office before but did run for U.S. Senate in 1996.

The question breaks into two parts, one having to do with beating incumbents, the other concerning whether rerunners might be better positioned to do it.

It’s hard to get scientific about this because the data is pretty small - in most places around the country in recent years, and certainly in Idaho. The reality is that not many incumbents lose anymore, either in primary or general elections. Some do, as a number of Republican U.S. House members found out in 2006 (or Democrats in 1994). But it’s unusual.

The most recent defeat of an incumbent partisan officeholder in Idaho above the legislative level was in 2002, in a Republican primary, of Lieutenant Governor Jack Riggs by Jim Risch, who still has the job. Before that, you have to go back to 1974 for an in-party (primary) loss, of Republican Orval Hansen to George Hansen, in the 2nd District.

Among partisan (Republican-Democratic) contests in Idaho above the legislative level, the last incumbent loss was in 1998, when Republican Superintendent of Public Instruction Anne Fox (brought down by more unbelievably bad headlines than can be recounted here) lost to Democrat Marilyn Howard. Howard is the only Democrat to beat a sitting Republican for major office in Idaho since 1984, when Richard Stallings ousted George Hansen, by then a convicted felon. (That’s over the course of nearly a quarter-century - a point to think about.) The only other incumbent defeats that come to mind over the last third of a century or so (someone please advise if you think of any others) are Republican Helen Chenoweth’s defeat of Democrat Larry LaRocco for the 1st District in 1994, and of course Democratic Senator Frank Church’s loss to Republican Steve Symms in 1980. We might add here that the last governor to be ousted in Idaho was Republican Don Samuelson, by Democrat Cecil Andrus, in 1970. The last lieutenant governor to lose a general election was Democrat Bill Murphy (appointed to the office) by Republican Phil Batt in 1978.

Of those six successful cross-party takeouts - by Howard, Stallings, Chenoweth, Symms, Batt and Andrus (which pretty much covers us for the last 40 years) - two (Stallings and Andrus) were candidates re-running for the office; the others all were taking their first shot at it, though Symms and Batt certainly were experienced candidates by the time of their runs. The more significant point may be that in the cases of Stallings and Andrus, a lot changed in between the first run and the second. In Stallings’ case, he faced an opponent (Hansen) the second time who was brought down by criminal convictions, and even then just barely beat him. Andrus’ case was more complex, but the core of it may have been that Samuelson was widely seen as not up to the job, and that 1970 race too was closer than many people tend to remember.

Have there been many second-runners who have not succeeded the second time around? A fair number, actually, among them Democrat Jerry Brady, running for governor in 2002 and 2006; Dan Williams, Democrat for 1st district in 1996 and 1998; Republican Jim Jones, who lost the Republican primaries in the 2nd district in 1978 and 1980; Democrat Stan Kress, also in the 2nd District, in 1976 and 1978. The most successful recent case we can think of is Republican Tom Luna, who lost for superintendent of public instruction in 2002 but won in 2006 when the seat opened with Howard’s retirement.

Look around the election records of Oregon and Washington and you’ll find the patterns aren’t drastically different. (The last U.S. House member ousted in Oregon was in 1996, and in Washington in 1998 - in a total of 14 seats.) Re-runners do sometimes win (and there are people who’ve lost races for an office three times before winning it). But the obvious advantages of being able to start with more experience and connections and nation ID so forth, often seem to be balanced by the lack of freshness and optimism, and that “loser” frame can be hard to escape (harder, maybe, than if running for a different office next time).

What it really comes down is, taking out an incumbent is hard. Not impossible. But hard. Whatever your track record.

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