We at Ridenbaugh Press are registered (in Oregon you do register by preference) as independents, and we have a soft spot for independent, non-aligned candidates. And some frustration, because almost never do these candidacies amount to much more than spots on a ballot and time-absorbers at the occasional debates where they’re allowed to participate. Nearly all end with vote percentages in the one to two percent range. Few of these candidates seem to take their races much more seriously, for that matter, than most of the voters do.

Rex Rammell, by opting out of the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate from Idaho and running as an independent instead - as he announced this week - has thrown himself into that category. It is true that he was almost certainly headed for a big loss in the Republican primary to Jim Risch, the lieutenant governor who is overwhelmingly the best known, most organized and best finances of the Republicans running for Senate. And it is true that by running as an independent, Rammell’s candidacy stays alive until November. But his chances of ultimate election are no better. As an independent, he will lack the built-in organization, support and finance networks political parties provide, and those are no small advantages.

Reports on his announcement press conference say he offers three lines of argument for why he can win: “Jim Risch is too old to become a U.S. senator. You don’t become a U.S. senator in the sunset of your career . . . I am a member of the LDS church, which is a significant portion of the electorate.” And his (now former) ownership of an elk hunting ranch in eastern Idaho, which has been the subject of much of his involvement in politics so far and over which he and Risch came to battle while Risch was serving as governor in 2006.

Let’s take these in reverse order.

Ask most Idahoans what they think about elk ranches - shooting galleries, virtually - and you probably won’t get a lot of positive response. Remember the issue that brought Rammell and Risch to clash: Elk escaped from Rammell’s ranch and, because state officials were concerned for the health of wild elk, Risch ordered that they could be shot if necessary. Probably most Idahoans would side with Risch on that one.

Second, the fact that Rammell is LDS and Risch is not (he is a member of the Roman Catholic church) doesn’t really count for much. There’s a ream of election research showing that LDS voters don’t reflexively vote for fellow Mormons, though they do overwhelmingly vote for candidates who they think are closely aligned with their church’s stances. Risch has just that alignment; Mormon eastern Idaho has been one of his strongest areas around the state for years, and he is closely allied with many leading church members. Rammell cannot easily cut into that.

Third . . . has Rammell checked the age of the candidate most Idahoans probably will support for president this year - Republican John McCain? He’s got a few years on Risch. Of course, Rammell’s implicit point is that electing a younger person to the Senate means they could have more time to develop seniority, maybe chair a committee or the like, and that much is true. But we all elect U.S. senators to terms of six years, not 20 or 30. Senators can have considerable impact without lots of years in place (there’s a senator from Illinois making that point these days), and a fair number of really veteran senators over the years have amounted to little more than deadwood for much of their tenure. And the idea that you’re too old to serve in the Senate once you’ve passed the 45 or 50 year mark seems, on its face, a little perverse.

Rammell is going to need more ammunition if he plans to rise above the usual run of independent candidacies for the Senate.

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