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Posts published in “Day: February 5, 2008”

Early in Idaho

If you're looking for stats from the Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses, the place to go is the state party's results page, nearly done and well broken-out. For liveblogging from the scene, check out the Idaho Statesman's Kevin Richert's blog and expect more at Red State Rebels as well.

But the core point is that the predictions (here among other places) that Obamamania would sweep Idaho have proven out; Barack Obama will take nearly all of Idaho's national convention delegates, with the outside possibility that he gets them all. Early reports are of electricity in the Obama caucuses. Obama is stomping all comers in Idaho, and that's no surprise.

We'll be reviewing that results chart again soon, but for the moment an early indicator we were really struck by: A turnout of 212 Democrats to the caucus in Madison County (of which Obama won 82%). Madison County is Rexburg, folks, it's where contested Republicans oftentimes win 90% of the vote - one of the very reddest counties in one of the very reddest states. 212 people is not a whole lot fewer than Ada County (Boise) Democratic events attracted not so many years ago. And there were 115 in Lemhi County . . . for those of us who've watched Idaho politics over the years, that's breathtaking. And in little Teton County, total population about 7,500, a tightly competitive valley area, Democrats drew 275 caucusgoers - a real sizable chunk of the voting population, a genuinely stunning number.

Those stories from other states about Democrats blowing through old ceilings appear to be matched in Idaho.

Cash on hand leaders

In case the post below left you wondering, here are the dozen top U.S. House candidates in the Northwest (all in Washington and Oregon) in cash on hand as of the start of this year. You may note a pattern here.

WA 3 - Brian Baird, Democratic incumbent - $1,050,449
OR 2 - Greg Walden, Republican incumbent - $891,643
WA 1 - Jay Inslee, Democratic incumbent - $851,027
WA 7 - Jim McDermott, Democratic incumbent - $612,286
WA 8 - Darcy Burner, Democratic challenger - $607,143
OR 1 - David Wu, Democratic incumbent - $592,010
WA 6 - Norm Dicks, Democratic incumbent - $530,639
WA 2 - Rick Larsen, Democratic incumbent - $474,246
OR 5 - Darlene Hooley, Democratic incumbent - $467,540
OR 3 - Earl Blumnauer, Democratic incumbent - $465,453
WA 8 - Dave Reichert, Republican incumbent - $462,828
WA 9 - Adam Smith, Democratic incumbent - $415,841

The unlikely cash-poor

Dave Reichert

Dave Reichert

Bill Sali

Bill Sali

Republican incumbents in Congress are supposed to have fat campaign treasuries. At least, they almost always have. That's why this from the Politico site jumps out:

"The latest fundraising reports are a gut punch for this six-pack of GOP incumbents: Reps. Christopher Shays (Conn.), Dave Reichert (Wash.), John R. Kuhl (N.Y.), Tim Walberg (Mich.), Jean Schmidt (Ohio) and Bill Sali (Idaho). With the exception of Sali, all represent swing districts. But it’s also a blow to a House Republican conference that for years has prided itself on using aggressive fundraising tactics and mandates to make sure all of its incumbents held a significant money edge for their reelection."

You'll notice the two northwesterners here.

According to the newly-filed year-end reports, Sali has raised $297,802 in this cycle, and has $100,023 in cash on hand - a tiny sliver of what his campaign spent in 2006. Comparable numbers for Democratic candidate Walt Minnick are $410,353 and $311,168, and for Larry Grant $65,123 and $40,818. (No filings were listed for the third contender, Rand Lewis.)

In Washington's 8th district, the numbers are a little stronger for Reichert: $1,039,957 raised, $462,828 on hand. But his presumed Democratic challenger, Darcy Burner, isn't far off in cash raised, $874,271, and ahead in cash on hand, $607,143.

The Politico's quote from a Republican aide: “You’re going to see all these members in tough shape. You have all these seats out there that are so expensive because of the money we’ve put in in the past. We might not be able to save some of these guys that we brought back last time.”