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Posts published in “Day: November 17, 2007”

Ron Paul country

Ron Paul

Ron Paul

The Ron Paul campaign continues to surprise and do well in the Northwest. We've spotted no lack of Paul signage all over the region in recent weeks; could it be his fiscal conservatism combined with his anti-war stance? Both of those things would sell reasonably in the Northwest, to some extent, anyway. Whatever it is, Paul is going very well in this corner of the country.

There's a striking map on the Paul campaign well site (hat tip to Oregon Catalyst for the pointer) showing the number of fourth-quarter donors per capita, by state. Excepting New Hampshire, where he also does well, Paul's support seems heavily weighed to the western states (excepting California). Of those western states, Montana and Nevada are in the top tier, and Idaho and Washington are just behind, with Oregon also doing well for Paul in the next rank.

Oregon Catalyst has a fine - and intense - discussion about this.

A three-way

The entry this week of Boise businessman Walt Minnick into what's now a three-way Democratic primary for the 1st U.S. House seat raises some issues - most immediately: Who winds up taking the primary?

And there we have no obvious answer - less obvious than some advocates probably think. Leaving aside the matter of the general election (any Democratic nominee will, as matters stand, be looking at a steep uphill against incumbent Republican Bill Sali), the primary is shaping as a seriously contested three-way contest that realistically could go in any direction.

Early presumption, months ago, was that 2006 Democratic nominee Larry Grant would have the nomination for the asking. And Grant is asking: He has announced his 2008 campaign. The arguments for a clear enough. Grant came across fairly well as a candidate last time (go back and read the at-the-time descriptions if you doubt that; a lot of revisionism has been underway this year). His campaign had faults, as all do, but it ran energetically, and Grant displayed substantial campaign skills. For '08, he can draw on experience and much of his existing organization, and build on his mostly positive name ID.

The counter is that he's never won a race, either, and the vocal criticisms of last year's candidacy which have emerged this year from within his own party have sapped some Democratic confidence (and helped lead to the other candidacies). He's not a new face this time. And his campaign hasn't been super-visible since his announcement in July. (The most current press release on his web site is dated September 27.) Some Democrats will back him out of loyalty; others may question whether he pulled his weight last time.

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