Only but so many seriously-contested major-office races - we're defining "major office" here as congressional and gubernatorial - are in the offing in the Northwest for 2008, as matters sit, and that makes sense considering how few incumbents are losing these days. Also striking: The number of candidates in these particular races who, having lost once, are determined to give it a second shot.
Second runs by losing candidates of course aren't unprecedented - and we'll get to some of that history shortly - but this time, many of the key races seem to be dominated by reruns.
The one governor' race in the region appears likely to be rematch between Democrat Chris Gregoire, now the incumbent, and Republican Dino Rossi (though Rossi could still shock us all and drop out). The two Senate races in the region would not be reruns, though in Idaho the probable Republican and Democratic nominees for a presumably (presumably) open seat, Jim Risch and Larry LaRocco, have run against each other twice before. Rumors and sighs about actual battles for U.S. House seats so far have focused on three districts in the region, one in each state - and each one featuring, odds appear, a rematch from 2006.
Prompting us to take a quick two-part look at, first, the record in recent times of beating incumbents and, second (in a post tomorrow) the track record of candidates who run a second time.
Actually, we can dispose of the incumbent-beating track record pretty quickly. Simply, it doesn't happen a lot.
Over the last 20 years, no governor has been defeated for re-election in Idaho, Oregon or Washington: The last was Washington Republican John Spellman in 1984. You have to go back to 1970 in Idaho and to 1978 in Oregon to find a gubernatorial incumbent loss (though at least a couple of other governors, in Oregon in 1994 and in Washington in 1996, were at severe risk of loss and retired instead).
During this same time, just one U.S. senator was defeated for re-election - Washington's Slade Gorton, in 2000 (who also happened to be the last one in the region defeated for re-election prior to that, in 1986). The last senator ousted by the voters in Idaho was Democrat Frank Church in 1980, and in Oregon Democrat Wayne Morse in 1968 - nearly four decades ago. Senatorial losses are not commonplace in the region, either.
There are a few more in the U.S. House, but the overall record there still isn't a lot more challenger-inviting.
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