Jim Risch |
Talk many years ago about Jim Risch, a couple of decades or so back when the subject came up about what the then-state senator might one day run for, didn’t center on governor. The word was that the job he’d really be interested in above other things was a seat in the U.S. Senate.
He may become one of the few Idahoans ever to do both. With his announcement today for the Senate, Risch becomes the presumptive Republican nominee and the immediate frontrunner for the job.
Idaho politics having recently gone through such a, ah, peculiar time this last month and a half, it’s worth stepping back and taking stock here of what’s not been upended (yet, at least) as well as what has.
The path to Risch’s announcement was most immediately cleared by Senator Larry Craig’s announcement, alongside his declaration of sticking in the Senate, that he would not run for re-election in 2008. Risch months ago had said he likely would run for the seat if Craig didn’t, so his announcement is in line with that. But it also had two other effects, which he must realize. The state Republican establishment must realize it too, which helps explain the high-level on-site support Risch got today (from Senator Mike Crapo, former Governor Phil Batt and even the theoretically impartial state GOP Chair Kirk Sullivan). One is that it puts a big obstacle in the way of any decision-changing by Craig on the subject of running again. The other is that it may foreclose candidacies from other major figures in the party – the establishment has closed ranks and made its decision, and it will be hard to buck.
There’ll probably be something in the way of small-scale candidacies, like that of elk farm owner Rex Rammell (who has indicated some delight at the idea of running against Risch). But we’re guessing there won’t be one; Sullivan’s support for Risch seems a real indicator. Absent a major figure such as Attorney General Lawrence Wasden, the nomination likely will go to Risch without much difficulty.
And the general?
Well, yes, there are the unknowns, and eventually the Republican presumption in Idaho statewides will run aground. 2008 looks like a strongly Democratic year generally, and even in Idaho Republicans have been badly shaken. We can’t yet know fully what the political fallout from the Craig scandal will be. (Might it actually cause substantial numbers of Idaho Republicans to drop out or switch parties? We’re doubtful such numbers would be significant, but it could happen.)
And Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco, who was elected to the U.S. House twice (1990 and 1992), has been in the field for half a year and has been hustling. His campaign is far ahead of the normal schedule for Democratic challengers in Idaho. Will 2008 be the year Idaho voters, so rigidly consistent for so many years in their Republican voting, break the pattern?
Possible. But.
There’s been no evidence yet in the last couple of years, outside the city limits of Boise, that substantial numbers of Idaho voters are changing voting patterns solidly in place for 15 years: From where exactly will the Democratic-majority votes come? Democrats remain not nearly as well organized as Republicans in Idaho, so they may have a hard time taking advantage of a national sweep, if it happens.
We’ve never considered Risch, whose intelligence and energy is obvious at first glance, to be an especially appealing retail handshaking candidate; his strength is not as Mr. Warmth. But his skill has grown steadily, and he generated strong good will statewide from his much-praised performance as governor, for seven months. And his smooth resumption of his lieutenant governor duties after holding the top spot probably won him some affection too. Risch may be as popular as any politician in Idaho right now, likely at a career peak – what better time for a Senate race? LaRocco has run against him twice before, for the state Senate and for lieutenant governor, both on occasions when he was less strong politically than he is now; and Risch won decisively both times.
Change comes to all things, Idaho not excepted, and we’ll be watching for counter-indicators. But the state of play today is this: Risch is a strong favorite to win this Senate seat in another year.
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