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Posts published in “Day: September 8, 2007”

Red, SUSA said

The SurveyUSA will, it seems, poll almost anything political. For example this one, conducted Thursday and released this afternoon, comparing the prospective votes for various possible fill-ins for the Idaho Senate seat now held by Larry Craig, against the Democrat already announced for the seat in next year's election, Larry LaRocco.

Here's how it goes.

Republican prospect his vote % LaRocco % undecided
Jim Risch 52% 36% 13%
Mike Simpson 54% 34% 12%
Dirk Kempthorne 55% 36% 9%
David Leroy 42% 39% 19%
Dane Watkins 40% 41% 19%
Lawrence Wasden 46% 36% 17%

Short response here: Not too much should be made of it. Risch, Simpson and Kempthorne perform substantially above the other three, but that's doubtless in part because they are - currently - much better known around the state. (Bear in mind that Simpson specifically is not in contention for the Senate appointment, and Kempthorne seems to be a remote prospect.)

The main difference here is in the undecideds: The LaRocco percentage remains steady between 34% and 39% in each case except that of the pairing with Dane Watkins, an unusual case not only because many respondents may not have known who that was, but because many of those (in eastern Idaho) who did recognize the name may have been confused (there's a like-named father and son, one a now-elderly former congressional candidate, the other a current Bonneville County prosecutor).

The distinction between this and the inevitable SUSA poll after an appointment will be somewhat interesting to check. But mark all of this down as really early.