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Posts published in “Day: July 16, 2007”

Latest departure: Dallum

July 16, 2007
John Dallum

John Dallum

The outlook for a Republican re-control of the Oregon House continues to worsen: Representative John Dallum, R-The Dalles, said today he will resign as of the end of the month. He had been thought likely to run again; as it is, a Republican successor will likely be named in August.

Politics and the shift to the minority evidently aren't the reason. An e-mail that went to The Dalles Chronicle explained, “I have been offered a job in Valier, Montana, a town that is less then two hours away from my grandkids! Dorthy and I could not pass up the opportunity to move back to Montana where we could be close to family."

There is political impact, however.

(more…)

Quarterlies

July 16, 2007

The single most striking number on the regional quarterly congressional campaign finance reports may have been this: $1,568,720. That's the amount Mike Erickson, who ran against Democratic incumbent Darlene Hooley last year, says his campaign remains in debt. (Consider for a moment the pressure for hard and immediate fundraising he would have been under as an incumbent had he won. Consider the difficulty of it now.)

All right - according to the FEC paperwork, he owes it to himself, at least as a direct matter. But is it not forgiven, or wiped off, for some particular reason?

Apart from that, the most striking thing to emerge from the Federal Election Commission database - the day after the filing deadline - may have been an absence: In Idaho, only two people, incumbent Republican Representative Mike Simpson and 2006 candidate Sheila Sorensen, have filed their second quarterlies. (Simpson reports a modest $74,789 on hand, but better than the $219,597 debt Sorensen reports.) There's no filing yet in the database from any of the active or prospective 1st district candidates in this cycle.

Nor much from challengers in Washington and Oregon. The region's House leader for cash on hand - and no debt - is Washington Democrat Brian Baird, at $817,165. Oregon Democrats David Wu and Earl Blumenauer and Republican Greg Walden, and Washington Democrat Adam Smith all have more than $400,000 on hand. The rest have smaller amounts, mostly somewhat over $100,000.

Ahead in Idaho

July 16, 2007

Polling is out in presidential preferences in Idaho, and while there's no enormous shock, they're worthy of note.

The new results come from Greg Smith Associates of Eagle; the report cautions any reading of them, owing partly to a smaller than usual sample size.

Smith, who is a public supporter of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, must have been heartened by the Republican results, which gave Romney a big lead (especially in eastern Idaho), 38% to 20% for second-place Rudy Guiliani; not-yet-candidate (depending on how you describe him and who he describes himself to) Fred Thompson is third at 18%. Of course, Idaho would be expected to be one of Romney's best states; most of Idaho's Republican political establishment is already in his camp.

Among Democrats, top place went a man not in the race, former Vice President Al Gore, at 31%, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton basically tied, for second after Gore or for first place if Gore is excluded.

A comment: “Note that no candidate in either party, except for Romney, currently garners more than a third of support among primary election/caucus participants. The contest here in Idaho, like in the rest of the nation, is by no means a lock for any candidate, although it is interesting even at this early stage how small the “soft” support level is for any candidate.”