The impact of place

Political races are decided in part by the nature of the candidate, in part by the nature of the campaign – but more, usually, by the nature of the place where the campaign is run. Ordinarily, and especially in recent years, places tend to vote R or D, red or blue, up and down the ballot, with ever fewer exceptions. Exceptions remain, but they are fewer now than they once were.

That’s key to the recent analysis behind the political prospects of Oregon state Representative Dennis Richardson, R-Central Point.

Oregon House District 4

Richardson has unleashed several controversial comments of late, notably one which compared passage of the Oregon domestic partnership and gay anti-discrimination measures to the massacre at Virginia Tech. (He later said he “didn’t intend” to make that linkage.) The discussion arose: How might Richardson be defeated in 2008?

The response from some southern Oregon observers was, won’t be easy. The core of the reason being that Richardson’s district is very conservative and very Republican. John Doty, who has run for the legislature in that region, noted, “The district he represents (Northwest Jackson county and a sliver of Josephine… with Central Point being the largest city (along with the towns of Rogue River and Gold Hill) is solidly red – so much so that getting an opponent to step forward at all is like pulling teeth for the county dems.”

Always a point to consider.

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