This may fall into the category of the premature, but the politically wise oftimes are those who look a few steps ahead to the possible, not only the certain. Thus, Mike Adams’ commentary today on prospective candidates for the Idaho U.S. House seat (2nd district) held by Republican Mike Simpson.
The immediate objection is that Simpson isn’t going anywhere; and the probability is that he isn’t, at least not soon. But Adams, a long-time eastern Idaho Republican worker, conservative commentator and sometime candidate, points out that no one yet knows either, for sure, whether Idaho Senator Larry Craig will run next year for a fourth term. We figure the likelihood is that he will (and as Adams notes, “If Craig chooses to stay, things are not apt to change”). But as there’s been no announcement yet, counter-speculation isn’t out of line. And Adam’s thinking, reasonably, is that if Craig opts out, there’s a good chance Simpson will file to replace him. Both current Idaho Senators, as it happens, are former members of the U.S. House – there’s some tradition involved. And Simpson would seem likely to win a Senate race without strain.
That much is ordinary discussion among Idaho political types. Adams’ speculation today in the Idaho Falls Post-Register (online, but behind a pay wall) goes to the next move: Who are the prospects for Simpson’s seat should he vacate it next year?
Adams lists five prospects, allowing for the possibility of others as well. One of those is a Democrat: Jim Hansen, the Democratic nominee against Simpson last year.
The four Republicans he singles out all have state Senate background: state Senator Brent Hill of Rexburg; state Senator Dean Cameron of Rupert; and former state Senators Dane Watkins and Stan Hawkins, both of the Idaho Falls area.
The first two sound the most likely. Cameron, who co-chairs the legislature’s budget committee, has been mentioned as a possible contender for higher office – often something like lieutenant governor but sometimes U.S. House – for a decade or more. Maybe he never does run for a higher office, but if he’s ever going to, he’ll need to pull the trigger eventually, or one day people will quit bringing up his name. And in Idaho, for Republicans, higher office opportunities (absent an anti-incumbent primary) are intermittent. Hill is newer to the legislature but well regarded, and developing some statewide imprint for his work on varied legislature (the anti-smoking measure from a few sessions back comes to mind). And Adams points out that Madison County, Hill’s base, is growing rapidly and has a big base of Republican primary voters. Either senator would be a plausible contender.
A run by the other two would be conceivable but less likely. Hawkins, a conservative fireplug in the Senate who annoyed his own party’s leaders more often than he did the Democrats, has a loyal base among conservative activists in eastern Idaho; but he’s been out of office for some years, and his visibility has diminished. And Watkins, who was elected for a couple of decades to the Senate from Idaho Falls, fell for short in his runs for the 2nd district seat back in the 80s.
We get the sense that the list of prospects could be a good deal longer. But Adams’ suggestions do make a useful starting point for speculation, whether or not it bears fruit in the months ahead.
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