Not to go too far out on a limb here, but there seem to be some growing indications that Idaho voters may turn down Proposition 2.
Yes, it has had winning margins in past polls, but then Idahoans have changed their minds on ballot issues before during the course of a campaign. We're making no specific predictions, but we would suggest the ingredients for such a shift are in place.
Prop 2 is the land use ballot issue proposed chiefly by activist Laird Maxwell and several out of state interests who are funding him. (Yes, there is some in-state support, but it would not be on the ballot but a New York businessman named Howard Rich.) The measure has two parts, one blocking eminent domain proceedings intended to seize from one private owner to give to another, the other a rewrite of Oregon's Measure 37, intended to freeze land use regulation retroactive to the time of a property's purchase. The first is an empty shell, since the Idaho Legislature already has done the same thing. It was put there to cover the Measure 37 rewrite, which is intended to weaken local land use planning and throw a whole lot of decisions into courts, as has happened in Oregon (where the land use system is so different as to be beyond easy comparison).
The whole is being sold under the concept "protect your property rights." A lot of voters never investigate further than the nearest handy slogan, and the big-buck backers of the measure have been happy to pay for the advertising which has slammed out that slogan over and over. This accounts for the early poll results.
Opposition from people with credibility on the conservative side of the land use debate, however, may be taking its toll. Newspapers and Democrats arguing against it, as they have, is one thing. But there's more. Chamber of Commerce and the state's top business lobby, the Idaho Association of Commerce & Industry, have come out against. Governor Jim Risch, who ought to have good credibility on this, has released his concerns.
But the capper on this is Mr. anti-Regulation himself, Republican gubernatorial candidate C.L. "Butch" Otter. (more…)