Posts published in “Day: September 8, 2006”

For a generation, Idaho has had a fine feature in its political campaigns that many other states do not: An informal yet institutionalized structure of televised political debates that major office candidates as a matter of course take part in. In many states, the decision of whether the participate is renegotiated every election cycle; in Idaho, for many years, declining to participate simply isn't done.

Well, it's done now.

The debates have been set up through the League of Women Voters and Idaho Public Television. There's nothing necessarily sacred about their doing the debates, and over the years other groups and broadcasters have aired other debates as well. (When it comes to debates, the more the merrier, we always say.) But the IPTV-League debates have a special place, partly because they offer historical continuity - they've been done continuously for a long time now - and because they are a complete set. A commercial broadcaster might be interested in a race for governor or Congress, but might be less inclined to put an hour of prime time into a contest for, say, state controller or treasurer. The IPTV debates have created a framework of expectations: A run for major office on a major party ticket will mean you're expected to show up at a particular time and place organized by a group of people who have developed standing over an extended period.

This year, more than before, that's being challenged. Some days ago, Jim Risch, the current Idaho governor running as a Republican for the office of lieutenant governor, backed out of the IPTV debate, instead saying that he'll accept an invitation to appear at a KTVB-TV debate. And today, Republican gubernatorial nominee C.L. "Butch" Otter said he will do the same thing.

They're still appearing at debates, true. And the KTVB debates - they've done them a number of times over the years - certainly are professional too.

But those pullouts seriously weaken a debate structure under pressure in recent years. Its backers will have to do some hard thinking over the next cycle to make sure it doesn't weaken further in 2008.

The new Greg Smith & Associates poll, just out this afternoon, has one startling result in it, one certain to start some debate rolling among Idaho political watchers.

It is so startling because little else in it is.

The last Smith poll, using the same methodology, emerged in early July. In the 1st District U.S. House race, the premier contest at the monent, that poll gave Republican Bill Sali a lead of 41% to 25% over Democrat Larry Grant, with the remainder (34%) undecided. The new poll, conducted shortly before Labor Day, gives Grant a lead - 22% to 14%. And 61% undecided.

That's a double-headed stunner. If the numbers are right, then the number of undecideds in the race has nearly doubled, with almost all of that increase coming out of Sali's hide. It doesn't reflect acceleration on Grant's part; his numbers are almost identical, even down by a hair. Nevertheless, if a mass of former Sali backers have started easing away, that ought to be a cause for deep concern on the part of that campaign. (Could it be related to the recent defensiveness we've noted earlier?)

Are the numbers right? Well, you're never wise to put too much weight on any one single poll result. But consider this: All the other races polled both months - governor and lieutenant governor - show results almost unchanged from six weeks ago. And in two other races just polled, 2nd District U.S. House and superintendent of public instruction, the results show strong Republican leads, as you'd expect. Smith suggested that "The change is clearly a result of changing voter sentiment, not a change in polling methodology.”

We'd like to see whether this result is backed up a second time, or whether the next Smith poll swings back somewhat in the 1st CD. But the moment, with caveats noted, the poll suggests the 1st is a district to watch - one with a substantial number of voters not nailed down.

In the other results, there's less of note.

Office	Republican	%	Democrat	%
Govenor	Butch Otter	42%	Jerry Brady	18%
Lt Gov	Jim Risch	46%	Larry La Rocco	23%
1st US House	Bill Sali	14%	Larry Grant	22%
2nd US House	Mike Simpson	61%	Jim Hansen	19%
Supt Publ Instr	Tom Luna	40%	Jana Jones	29%

No great surprises elsewhere, other than that the number of undecideds is holding fairly strong elsewhere, too. This may be an unsettled, and unsettling election cycle yet.

UPDATE: The Sali campaign apparently doesn't handle bad news very well. It shot out a release contending, "The methodology used was so bad that Channel Seven, who commissioned the poll in the first place, has decided not to go with its obviously faulty results. We do not intend to release the results of our own internal polling at this time, for reasons of our own; but suffice it to say that our polling, using credible methodology and done by one of the most experienced and respected polling firms in the nation, bears no resemblance to Greg Smith's conclusions."

First, the Sali campaign had no issue with Smith's numbers in July, which resulted from the same methodology (and showed Sali in a more favorable light). Second, the easiest refutation of Smith's results would be release of the campaign's internal polls, which the campaign says it has conducted, but which it is not releasing. Campaigns often release at least the base numbers - if, that is, releasing them puts the campaign in a favorable light. Campaigns that sit on poll numbers typically do so because they don't look so hot - an argument in favor of Smith's numbers.

The emotional response suggests that Smith's results may have touched a nerve.