The big jump up and shout news this week from the backers of Idaho 1st House district Democrat Larry Grant comes to this: His opponent, Republican Bill Sali, just received a pile of money from the Republican Retain Our Majority Program (ROMP) fund.
The rationale is cleanly put by Jonathan Singer on the MyDD Democratic blog: "To this point, I knew that House Republicans were concerned about the possibility that they would lose control of the chamber. Yet I had no idea that they were in such a state of panic that they would divert hundreds of thousands of dollars to Idaho, one of just two states in which a majority of residents approve of President Bush; into a district in which President Bush received more than two-thirds of the vote; for a candidate who has already raised more than $500,000 - especially at a time when the NRCC is trailing the DCCC in cash-on-hand."
Now. Flip over to Congressional Quarterly (yeah, right, registration required), as solid a reporter of congressional politics as you will find anywhere, and you'll find the Idaho 1st listed as "safe Republican." (We discussed it with them last week.)
The view here is that CQ is closer to the mark. We've noted before a tendency among some Democrats to underestimate their difficulties in this race.
Sali did raise over a half-mill for his primary - but that's just it, he raised it for his primary, a notably difficult primary, and now he and his backers have to go back to the well. Grant has raised about half as much, but because he had no serious primary contest, he has relatively more money on hand. Sali's well-heeled primary backers - Club for Growth and its close allies - will not let him go unfunded in the general. Funds get shifted around in the giant D.C. money pot. And so here we are. We're unconvinced the ROMP money is a big deal. We're not seeing evidence of "panic."
However. In discussing the rating of the race with CQ, we suggested (not entirely facetiously) adding an asterisk to the "safe Republican" designation. Odds may favor Republican retention of the seat, but enough of what you might call "free radicals" are floating around to keep this race alive, and even turning it around. We may have hit a useful point for discussing some of them. (more…)