Does the dropout of Jeff Fropf from re-election to his House seat open a new House opportunity for Oregon Democrats?
The snap presumption seems to be that no, it doesn't. After rummaging through the stats, the area and the candidate situation, we'd conclude that the seat likely will remain Republican next term. Like but not definitely - Kropf's leave-taking has opened an opportunity for Democrats that hadn't existed previously.
Kropf is a native of the Albany area and long has been involved in real estate and run a farm near Sublimity, east of that city at the feet of the Cascades. Since his first election to the House in 1998 with 59.7% of the vote, he has had no trouble winning re-election, and his seat has been slated as safe Republican since. He has been one of the more flamboyant House members and made some headlines for flying an immigration watch on the border with Mexico; none of it has done him harm politically, and probably helped.
He filed for re-election this year, and he hasn't been considered at risk. But in the last few years he has also been a radio talk show host, part time, at KXL in Portland (occasionally subbing for Lars Larsen), and he has said he's interested in pursuing that line of work. It came to a decision in recent weeks when he and the station learned he'd have to give his opponent this year, Democrat Dan Thackaberry, equal air time, or pay his campaign the equivalent. Faced with the choice, Kropf ended his re-election bid rather than give up the radio show. Quote from Kropf: "I have to think about my future, and it isn't in politics, and it's likely to be in radio." (Will the show lose some of its spark when its host isn't an actual state official? But that's another matter.)
The Republicans have until August 29 to replace him; the decision probably won't come for another couple of weeks at least. Local Republicans said they're not worried about losing the seat, pointing to the 43%-34% Republican edge in voter registration. (more…)