Politics in Washington state will be rocked, and in Oregon affected somewhat, by a document scheduled to be on file tomorrow morning: The Washington Supreme Court’s decision on gay marriage.
We don’t know what the court will say. We can tell you right now that it will have much more political impact if it falls in the pro-gay marriage side: That will energize the social conservatives, possibly not quite as much as in 2004 but enough to keep the issue fron-burner for some time. A decision against same-sex marriage would have less impact, since no immediate policy change would be contemplated and the impact would be moderated by the gay rights law recently passed by the state legislature.
Expect also that the decision could become central to the re-election odds of two Supreme Court justices, including the chief.
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