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Posts published in “Day: June 21, 2006”

Where not to live

Aquick bit of amusement: Dave Oliveria asks his northern Idaho/eastern Washington readers which towns in either state they would not want to live in. Of course, "Besides Athol?"

The pile of responses are sometimes funny and sometimes surprisingly enlightening.

Popularity contest

Who's the most popular senator in the Northwest (and elsewhere)? SurveyUSA has the answers.

The polling company, which polls state by state in coordination with local organizations (TV stations, in the Northwest), has been doing regular popularity numbers on top elected officials. As of June, here are the numbers for the region's Senate delegation:

Senator State Favorable % Unfavorable % Margin
Mike Crapo/R Idaho 59% 31% 28%
Ron Wyden/D Oregon 56% 33% 23%
Larry Craig/R Idaho 58% 35% 23%
Patty Murray/D Washington 51% 40% 11%
Gordon Smith/R Oregon 47% 41% 6%
Maria Cantwell/D Washington 48% 43% 5%

None of them were super-high; Crapo, who ranked highest, was 27th among the 100 senators. Cantwell ranked at 80; poor luck for her that the lowest-ranking of the senators is also the only one in the region up for election this year.

In 2008, however, Idaho's Craig and Oregon's Smith return to the ballot (assuming they're running again - neither has announced). Neither have overwhelming numbers, according to SUSA, and Smith's in particular seem a little weak. If Democrats fare well in November in Oregon, the partisan knives will be out for Smith before long. An approval rating at 47% isn't where you want it to be if you're heading up to an election.

Whose property rights

One of the flaws with a lot of "property rights" arguments is that only one type of property interests - one type of rights - tends to be addressed, and complexities of real-world real estate get missed. Consider the case of the owner of a manufactured home park at Wilsomville.

Wilsonville is on the southern edge of the Portland metro area - about as far away from downtown as commuters en masse will live - and it is surrounded by some of the area's classiest and highest-priced property (million-dollar horse estates and the like). For some years Roger Ash has owned a manufactured housing park called the Thunderbird Mobile Club, which has provided spaces for about 270 of what used to be called "mobile homes." How, because the property could be much more valuable used for high-end housing or other purposes, he wants to sell. (more…)

Tighter, tighter

It flies in the face of conventional Washington politics, of campaign finance numbers, of the political atmospherics and more. but the polling numbers look consistent: The Washington Senate race keeps getting tighter and tigher.

Maria CantwellThe latest Rasmussen Reports Poll on the race shows a lead by Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell over her Republican challenger, insurance company executive Mike McGavick, of 44%-40% - just about at the margin of error.

Maria CantwellApart from the closeness, two aspects here ought to give the Cantwell people big worries. One is that her lead has been diminishing, steadily, since January, from 15% then, to 13% in March, to 8% in April and 5% in May. About the only consolation is that the race may not be tightening quite as fast as it was.

The other, maybe bigger, issue is that since March or so she has fallen below the 50% mark, and an incumbent held to below 50% is an incumbent in high risk. Again, a minor consolation: McGavick's numbers are up only 3% since the polling started last fall, so he hasn't been gaining a lot, either. (The counter to that would be that McGavick is still introducing himself to voters, while Cantwell already is well known.)

These results aren't unqie; they fit generally with other recent polling results as well. Consider this from Survey USA, which polled only favorable/unfavorable about incumbent senators: Cantwell polled 48% favorable and 43% unfavorable - again, not good for an incumbent.

One thing this suggests is that Washington residents, so far, arent' falling in love with either one of them.