Headed toward the finish line a three weeks hence, the six-way Republican race for the the House in Idaho's 1st district appears to continue fluid, its outcome not yet nailed down. The contours for the end game do at least start to take a more definite shape.
The bottom line seems to be a probable win by either state Representative Bill Sali or former state Senator Sheila Sorensen 9with a small edge to the former). That's not a rule-out of other possibilities, just an expression of what seems now to be the likelihood.
That's based in part on the appearance of activity, the way the candidates have been responding to each other and what looks like the shifts in base that each candidate can call their own.
It isn't much based on the one bit of recently-released polling information - for reasons we're about to mention - though it does give some useful cause for reflection. (more…)