March 25, 2023
They're still coming. The map from United Van Lines' study this year of states where people are mostly inbound or outbound shows Washington as neutral, but the text of the study says Washington is still basically inbound, and that the rate picked up more than 2% in 2005 over 2004.
Oregon and Idaho, on the other hand, are more definitively inbound states - they're still a-coming.
The logical answer to a state budget surplus has not, historically, been to spend it all, even on one-time projects: It creates an unsustainable level. (A little one-time stuff may work.) Nor have the tax cut proposals worked out well: Cuts in taxes one year tend to lead to ugliness, and often tax increases, later on.
Rainy-day funds, at least up to a point, seldom go too far wrong. If stability in government finance is a good thing, then such funds are easy to defend. And usually not wildly hard to sell - if you practice the right kind of diplomacy.
That's the challenge ahead for Washington Governor Christine Gregoire as she proposed putting the largest chunk of the state's anticipated revenue surplus into a rainy-day account. Her proposal of it - a massive $900 million - is not a hard sell in the context of a state of the state speech, and the virtue of it is easy to intellectualize. But when it comes down to passing out the dollars, hands will be out. And the issue isn't entirely clear-cut, because Gregoire has weighted her budget plans with a handful of spending proposals of her own. (more…)
The pivot county in Oregon p0litics, the place with the most true swing votes up for grabs - the kingmaker county of Oregon - is Washington County. But if there is a secondary key Oregon county, that would be Clackamas - and it may face a major local test of its loyalties soon.
Clackamas County lies southeast of Washington, and south of Multnomah (Portland); the three together are the core Portland metro area. But of the three, Clackamas (the smallest, but still the third most populous county in Oregon) probably still has the most rural feel, even if the bulk of its people now live in suburban subdivisions. There are plenty of still-rural communities here, like Canby and Mollala, in the gradual process of absorption into the metro.
Its development seems more truly suburban than high-tech driven, as it is in Washington County. But there are some other similarities. (more…)