Chances are that in 2006 Idaho in effect will reverse the decision it made in 2002 to keep a single Democrat in statewide office, as superintendent of public instruction. Chances are good, in fact, it will put in that office the same Republican who failed to drive out that Democrat last time.

Marilyn Howard is familiar enough to Idahoans, has a good enough personal reputation and – outside Boise Republican circles – is uncontroversial enough that she would have had a decent chance at holding the job if she wanted a third term next year. She doesn’t, and the default probability in such cases in Idaho, in these days, go to the winner of the Republican nomination.

This is the framework for considering the prospects of the rather large field of candidates, announced and prospective, for this job. None of those candidates are supremely well known in Idaho. To recap, the Republicans are State Representative Steve Smylie of Boise, 2002 Republican nominee Tom Luna and Coeur d’Alene High Principal Steve Casey; on the Democratic side, Jana Jones, Howard’s chief deputy, has announced, and state Senator Bert Marley of McCammon has expressed interest.

Jones’ candidacy seems firm, while Marley’s still is uncertain; there’s some talk in Democratic circles that superintendent is just one possibility, that Marley might turn toward another statewide office. In theory, Marley would be a strong candidate, a southeast Idaho Mormon Democrat, a combination that has worked well electorally in the past (John Evans, J.D. Williams to name two examples). He is an experienced campaigner and in 2004 beat a state Senate comeback attempt by one of the state’s premier political organizers, Republican Evan Frasure. He’s on the short list of Idaho Democrats who could look good on a statewide ballot. Is a race in a contested primary against a close ally of the Democratic incumbent the best place to put that asset to work? As for Jones, she is new to campaigning, and popularity seldom transfers as Howard and Jones presumably would like it to. On the other hand, the state offices of attorney general, state controller and secretary of state now are filled by men who previously had been chief deputies for their predecessors.

All that said, the default probability has to go to the Republican nominees, whoever that is. Casey is unknown statewide but has some connections; besides friendships in the Kootenai legislative delegation, his brother Greg was head of the Idaho Association of Commerce & Industry some years back and retains strong ties to statewide Republicans. Still, he starts a distant third behind Smylie, a veteran (and respected) legislator and a good campaigner and has strong professional credentials, and Luna, who lost to Howard in 2002 but ran a skilled and energetic campaign, and since has worked in the Bush administration. Both have liabilities: Smylie is a moderate in a state Republican party more conservative than he is; Luna, closer to the conservative core, was the sole major Idaho Republican loser in 2002, while may put off some party regulars. On the basis of philosophical appeal and the seeming antipathy of the primary electorate toward educators, the edge seems to go to Luna – for now.

Carrying through the rest of the formula: That gives Luna an edge, at matters sit, for the 2006 election to the job he couldn’t get in 2002. But bear in mind, that’s the starting point. Election day is still more than a year away.

Yes, this is still ridenbaugh.com, still the online presence of Ridenbaugh Press … but it has just undergone something of a transofmration.

We think it’ll open the door to several new projects, and it certainly means you can become a lot more involved.

The short story is that we’ve converted from an HTML site to a true blog, a database-driven site. We selected the WordPress software in making the transformation (which also has to do with a change of web hosts – the combination of the two has slowed the number of posts over the last week.

Expect that to change. The site as now developed – and as it will be tweaked in the weeks and months ahead – will allow for easier and faster posting.

And the old site? Well, much of the more recent material will be reposted right here. Beyond that, and going along beside it, is the old site, still intact for a while at least (maybe quite a while). You can access it if you like at www.ridenbaugh.com/index2.htm.

Let us know what you think, and how we can together explore public affairs in the Northwest more deeply.

The political story of this cycle in Washington was written this week not in any newspaper but in a blog, in Horse’s Ass, about King County executive contender David Irons, a Republican seeking to unseat Democrat Ron Sims. It is a story that grows out of the candidate’s personal life – almost though not quite as person as the reportage of the Spokane Spokesman-Review on Mayor James West. West is now saying he plans to sue the Spokesman for invasion of privacy.

There’s been some talk about legal liability in the comments section at Horse’s Ass too, but the Irons story is rather different: Provided in whole by members of the candidate’s family, including his mother and father, who say they will vote against him next month.

That much had gone public already in a column by Joni Balter of the Seattle Times, but none of the details – what underlay the family rift – did. That’s what David Goldstein, proprietor of Horse’s Ass, addressed in his long, and remarkable, October 20 post. Continue Reading »

We’ll not take particular exception to the promotional efforts of lottery officials who have been pumping up this week’s $340 million Powerball win by someone – tuns out to be a man in Medford – in hopes of expanding interest in the games.

The news media have no excuse, however – with the award for worst unpaid lottery ad of the week going to the Tuesday morning Idaho Statesman, which devoted half its page one newshole to hyping the game.

The dishonest part of this, from the perspective of news organizations at least, is that the winner will not get $340 million – not even close. At least the Oregonian, in today’s edition, made note of that. In a page one chart, it pointed out that the real winnings (after taxes) amount to $110.1 million, the amount the recipient either would get in lump sum or would be invested and doled out over 30 years.

That’s still not dog food, of course. But let’s have some honesty around here

One more thing: This winner has decided to remain secluded instead of basking in the media spotlight. Good for him.

Hardly ever hurts a politician to run against the local newspaper, especially when it comes to self-promotion. Tim Eyman learned that ages ago in Washington, and – we’d be surprised if it weren’t true – alongside some pleasure in broad-based media support of his new government audits initiative (and we here like it too) seems to be some low-level unease about having been accepted (temporarily) into the club that always rejected him.

A different variation of the theme comes in Boise, where the improbable city council candidacy of Brandi Swindell, against council incumbent Maryanne Jordan, has picked up some new juice in the wake of criticism from Idaho Statesman columnist Dan Popkey. She, or whoever is advising her, has taken neat advantage of a column which nailed some substantial criticisms and pointed in the general direction of several others. The most significant: Unprecedented specific alliance between the Idaho Republican Party and several very conservative religious groups.

Continue Reading »

The value push for thorough performance audits in Washington state could easily gain additional steam, and spread elsewhere, if specifically coupled to questionable spending by governments. It is on this side of the equation, rather than on the tax side alone, that anti-tax activists should be pushing. Most everyone would agree that governments should spend no more money than is needed to do a job that deemed necessary; apply proper scrutiny to one, and the other takes care of itself.

With that in mind, your tax dollars at work:

The Seattle Weekly reported in last week’s (October 12-18) edition about Seattle’s enforcement of its new strip club ordinance. The ordinance is intended to restrict activities in the clubs by, for example, reqauiring brighter lighting and a four-foot distance between dancers and customers, which means a ban on lap lancing.

The Weekly got hold of some of the law enforcement memos on investigation and enforcement procedures. One comments, “I would usually have two dances to see the subject was willing to do illegal acts for money.” Another long-time detective noted, “I have participated in covert inspections for approximately five years and have bought over 300 dances.” The Weekly estimated that works out to about $12,000.

Your taxpayer dollars at work